Sidus Space Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Sidus Space Inc

SIDUNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)-0.21

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $180.2M

Enterprise Value $152.8M

Shares Outstanding 101.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Sidus Space is successfully transitioning from a pure-play space hardware manufacturer to a high-margin, data-driven Space-as-a-Service provider. Backed by its proprietary LizzieSat technology, vertical integration, and edge AI capabilities (FeatherEdge/Fortis Maxima), the company is uniquely positioned to capture commercial and defense demand. Recent capital raises have significantly fortified its balance sheet, providing a robust runway to scale its constellation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.50

Technical anomalies, launch failures, or delays in the LizzieSat-4/5 deployment stall data-service monetization. High capital intensity and persistent operating losses lead to further equity dilution, depressing the stock price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$7.66

Steady expansion of the satellite fleet with launches proceeding on schedule (including Transporter-18 in late 2026). Revenue scales in line with management's projections of $9M in FY2026 and $15.75M in FY2027, supported by expanding contracts with partners like Lonestar Data Holdings.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$10.00

Rapid deployment of the LizzieSat constellation and successful commercialization of high-margin orbital data storage (StarVault) and AI-enabled Earth observation services. Strong execution of defense contracts (such as the MDA SHIELD IDIQ) drives rapid revenue growth and accelerates the path to profitability.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Vertically integrated business model spanning design, manufacturing, launch integration, and data delivery.
Proprietary edge AI computing platforms (Fortis Maxima) targeting Technology Readiness Level 9 (TRL-9).
Significantly improved liquidity with $27.35M in cash as of Q1 2026 and a subsequent $58.5M capital raise, leaving the company virtually debt-free.

Key Investment Risks

High historical cash burn and ongoing operating losses ($5.21M net loss in Q1 2026).
Dependence on third-party launch providers (primarily SpaceX rideshare missions) introduces schedule risk.
Intense competition from larger aerospace defense contractors and well-funded small-sat operators.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A major launch failure or total loss of an active LizzieSat satellite.
Failure to achieve the projected $9M revenue target for FY2026.
Significant delays in the transition from interim to permanent CFO leadership.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.