SI-BONE Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

SI-BONE Inc

SIBNNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $21.60median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $18.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $825.1M

Enterprise Value $827.6M

Shares Outstanding 44.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

SI-BONE, Inc. is transitioning from a single-product company to a comprehensive solutions provider for compromised bone, leveraging its clinical moat and expanding product portfolio. The company's core growth is driven by strong underlying procedure demand, expanding active physician adoption, and strategic commercial partnerships, notably with Smith & Nephew. With industry-leading gross margins near 80% and significant operating leverage, SI-BONE is on a clear path toward sustained profitability and positive free cash flow.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.00

Mean target$24.50

High · most bullish analyst$32.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$18.0010%

Delays in distributor onboarding under the Smith & Nephew partnership, potential pricing pressure from consolidated orthopedic giants, or macroeconomic headwinds affecting elective procedures slow top-line growth to high single digits, delaying cash flow break-even.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$23.0060%

Steady expansion of the active physician base, continued productivity gains from territory managers, and successful international rollouts of iFuse TORQ and TORQ TNT support the raised FY2026 revenue guidance of $230M to $233M (14%-16% growth) while maintaining gross margins around 79%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$27.0030%

Accelerated adoption of the iFuse Bedrock Granite system following favorable CMS FY2027 IPPS reimbursement changes, combined with rapid scaling of the Smith & Nephew trauma partnership, drives revenue growth above 20% and accelerates GAAP net income profitability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong clinical moat supported by over 185 peer-reviewed publications and multiple randomized controlled trials.
Favorable reimbursement tailwinds, including proposed CMS FY2027 IPPS payment increases for complex spinal fusions using Granite.
Strategic distribution partnership with Smith & Nephew targeting the $300 million trauma market.
High operating leverage, demonstrated by Q1 2026 operating expenses growing at just 4% compared to 11.2% revenue growth.

Key Investment Risks

Dependence on the pace of surgeon training and active physician onboarding.
Intense competition from diversified orthopedic giants (e.g., Medtronic, Stryker, Globus Medical) with bundled contracts.
Risk of supply chain disruptions or regulatory delays for upcoming breakthrough devices.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of CMS to finalize the proposed FY2027 IPPS rule for complex spinal fusions.
A significant drop in gross margins below 75% due to pricing pressure or manufacturing inefficiencies.
Termination or material underperformance of the Smith & Nephew distribution agreement.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.