Shoals Technologies Group Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySolar Beta (adjusted)1.61 Intrinsic Value $11.21median of 5 methods · middle span $6-$12based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $8.13Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4B Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 171M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. is a leading provider of electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions for utility-scale solar, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and EV charging infrastructure. The company's proprietary 'plug-and-play' Big Lead Assembly (BLA) architecture significantly reduces on-site labor costs and installation times by shifting complex wiring to a controlled manufacturing environment. Despite near-term margin pressures from tariffs and operational consolidation, Shoals is well-positioned to capitalize on robust domestic solar demand, accelerating BESS adoption, and international expansion, supported by a record backlog of $758 million. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.50 Mean target$11.32 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.5020% Persistent margin compression due to elevated material costs, higher tariffs, and prolonged litigation expenses. Project delays in the utility-scale solar sector and aggressive pricing from competitors erode Shoals' market share and slow backlog conversion. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.3250% Matches the consensus meanSteady execution of the domestic solar backlog with sequential gross margin improvements throughout 2026. The company achieves its raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $600M to $640M and Adjusted EBITDA of $118M to $132M, while successfully managing ongoing litigation and tariff headwinds. Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.0030% Accelerated domestic utility-scale solar deployment driven by regulatory tailwinds, rapid scaling of the high-margin BESS and data center segments, and successful international market share capture. Margins recover faster than expected as the new Tennessee mega-facility achieves optimal capacity utilization and tariff pressures ease. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |