Sherwin-Williams Co Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $333.43median of 6 methods · middle span $301-$342based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $320.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $77.9B Enterprise Value $87.4B Shares Outstanding 245.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sherwin-Williams entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum despite persistent demand softness. Second-quarter sales increased 7.5%, Paint Stores Group same-store sales rose 4.2%, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 21.5%, and management raised full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $11.80-$12.20. Share gains, pricing power, productivity, cash generation and shareholder distributions support the investment case. Broad-based input inflation, uncertain end-market demand, higher interest expense and execution risk around pricing and integration temper the outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$340.00 Mean target$390.10 High · most bullish analyst$420.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $340.0020% Demand weakens further while raw-material, energy, logistics and packaging inflation outpaces pricing. Gross-margin compression, higher interest expense or acquisition-integration friction could push adjusted EPS below management's guidance range. Base CaseCentral scenario $390.1058% Matches the consensus meanDemand remains soft but stable, pricing largely offsets moderate input inflation, and market-share gains support management's mid-to-high-single-digit sales outlook and adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $11.80-$12.20. Bull CaseUpside scenario $420.0022% Pricing, new-account wins and share-of-wallet gains sustain above-market growth while productivity and supply-chain efficiencies offset inflation. Continued professional-market gains, successful Suvinil integration and strong cash conversion would support earnings above the current guidance range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |