SFL Corp Ltd Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMarine Shipping Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $8.33median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $13.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.9B Enterprise Value $4.1B Shares Outstanding 133.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend27 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SFL Corp Ltd. operates as a resilient maritime infrastructure platform rather than a speculative shipping company. By acquiring high-quality vessels and leasing them back to top-tier, investment-grade counterparties under long-term, fixed-rate charters, SFL insulates itself from spot-market volatility. This business model provides exceptional cash flow visibility, supporting its remarkable track record of 89 consecutive quarterly dividend payments. Recent positive developments, including a 10% dividend hike to $0.22 per share, a major $170 million contract for the Hercules drilling rig starting in 2027, and successful refinancing activities, reinforce SFL's long-term distribution capacity and growth outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$12.38 High · most bullish analyst$14.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0010% A severe global macroeconomic slowdown reduces shipping demand, leading to counterparty defaults or early charter terminations by key liner operators. Additionally, prolonged idle time or lower-than-expected dayrates for offshore drilling rigs upon contract expiration compress margins, forcing a dividend cut. Base CaseCentral scenario $12.3860% Matches the consensus meanSFL successfully maintains its high fleet utilization and executes its contracted charter backlog of $3.7 billion. The company continues to pay a stable or slightly increasing quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share, supported by predictable cash flows from its diversified maritime portfolio. Refinancing risks remain well-managed through opportunistic capital market transactions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.0030% Stronger-than-expected charter rates in the spot market for uncontracted tankers, rapid deployment of newly acquired vessels, and higher dayrates for offshore drilling assets drive significant EBITDA expansion. This allows SFL to aggressively increase its quarterly dividend and execute share buybacks, attracting yield-seeking institutional investors. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |