ServiceTitan Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

ServiceTitan Inc

TTANNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)0.41

Intrinsic Value $130.59median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $67.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 94% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+94%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6.5B

Enterprise Value $6.1B

Shares Outstanding 96.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ServiceTitan is the leading vertical operating system for the highly fragmented and historically under-digitized trades industry (HVAC, plumbing, electrical, etc.). Following its IPO in late 2024, the company has demonstrated robust top-line momentum, crossing a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate in early 2026. The investment thesis centers on its high customer stickiness (95%+ gross retention, 110%+ net dollar retention), expanding platform gross margins, and a massive untapped addressable market. While near-term GAAP profitability remains a challenge due to heavy investments in R&D and AI capabilities, the company's strong free cash flow generation ($85 million in FY2026) and clean balance sheet provide a solid foundation for long-term compounding.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$83.00

Mean target$110.40

High · most bullish analyst$125.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$83.0015%

Slowing macroeconomic activity reduces consumer spending on home services, leading to longer sales cycles and lower transaction volumes (GTV) processed through the platform. High R&D and sales execution costs associated with AI rollouts pressure margins, delaying the path to GAAP profitability and causing a multiple contraction.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$110.4055%

Matches the consensus mean

ServiceTitan maintains steady revenue growth of 20-25% in line with FY2027 guidance ($1.11B - $1.12B). Net dollar retention remains stable above 110%, and gross dollar retention stays above 95%. Free cash flow continues to expand, allowing the company to self-fund its growth and gradually narrow its GAAP net losses.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$125.0030%

Accelerated adoption of the 'Max' automation suite and AI-powered features drives higher average revenue per account (ARPU). Platform gross margins expand past 80% on scale efficiencies, and the company achieves GAAP operating breakeven ahead of schedule. Strong construction and home-service demand, coupled with regulatory tailwinds for energy-efficient upgrades, fuels customer growth beyond expectations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market position as the 'operating system' for the trades with high switching costs.
Strong customer retention metrics with gross retention >95% and net retention >110%.
Improving financial profile with positive free cash flow ($85M in FY2026) and zero long-term debt.
Significant monetization runway through integrated financial services and agentic AI features.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent GAAP net losses and high stock-based compensation expenses.
Sensitivity of transaction-based revenue to macroeconomic cycles and consumer home-service spending.
Execution and adoption risks associated with new AI-powered product tiers.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net dollar retention rate falling below 105%.
Significant deceleration in year-over-year revenue growth below 15%.
Free cash flow turning negative for consecutive quarters.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.