ServiceNow Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

ServiceNow Inc

NOWNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySystems Software

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value $162.75median of 6 methods · middle span $124-$237based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $137.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $142.4B

Enterprise Value $145.4B

Shares Outstanding 1B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ServiceNow entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 subscription revenue grew 23% in constant currency, cRPO grew 21.5% in constant currency, AI ACV crossed $1 billion, and management raised FY2026 subscription-revenue guidance. The longer-term opportunity is supported by management's 2030 objectives of more than $30 billion in subscription revenue, 30% of ACV from AI, and Rule of 60+ performance. Margin pressure, acquisition integration, and stock-based compensation also require monitoring before assigning a more favorable valuation-dependent recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets46 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$72.00

Mean target$140.58

High · most bullish analyst$248.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$72.0018%

Subscription-revenue or cRPO growth falls below the 20% constant-currency Q3 benchmarks, indicating that Q2 benefited more from federal timing and on-premise mix than from durable acceleration. Concurrent margin underperformance, slower AI monetization, or acquisition-integration friction would reduce confidence in management's 2030 objectives.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$140.5858%

Matches the consensus mean

ServiceNow executes near its Q3 guidance of 20% constant-currency subscription-revenue and cRPO growth and 31% non-GAAP operating margin. AI and security expand the addressable opportunity, but hyperscaler usage, acquisition integration, and stock-based compensation temper near-term margin conversion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$248.0024%

AI monetization materially exceeds the Q2 milestone, agentic deployments continue scaling, and the broader security portfolio accelerates cross-selling. Subscription revenue and cRPO remain above 20% constant-currency growth while operating leverage improves beyond Q3 guidance, increasing confidence in the 2030 subscription-revenue, AI-mix, and Rule of 60+ objectives.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 subscription revenue increased 24.5% year over year and 23% in constant currency, while total revenue increased 24%.
ServiceNow AI crossed $1 billion in ACV, and management reported that agentic deployments increased ninefold over nine months.
Q2 cRPO reached $13.20 billion and RPO reached $29.0 billion; the company also reported 123 transactions exceeding $1 million in net-new ACV.
Management's 2030 objectives include more than $30 billion in subscription revenue, 30% of ACV from AI, and Rule of 60+ performance.

Key Investment Risks

Q3 guidance moderates to 20% constant-currency growth for both subscription revenue and cRPO, below the corresponding Q2 growth rates.
Q2 non-GAAP subscription gross margin declined to 80.5% from 83% a year earlier, and management attributed FY2026 gross-margin pressure partly to hyperscaler use and accelerating AI adoption.
Integration of Armis, Veza, and other acquired capabilities creates execution risk while ServiceNow expands into security, identity, and cyber-exposure management.
Q2 stock-based compensation represented 16.5% of revenue in the non-GAAP reconciliation, versus management's commitment to reduce it below 10% by 2029.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.