Service Properties Trust Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Hotel & Motel Beta (adjusted)1.44 Intrinsic Value $25.22median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $6.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 296% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+296%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $825M Enterprise Value $6.3B Shares Outstanding 129.5M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Service Properties Trust (SVC) is undergoing a major strategic transition from a hotel-focused REIT to a predominantly net lease REIT, which is expected to unlock valuation upside over the long term. However, the company faces significant near-term headwinds, including a high debt maturity profile with approximately 40% of its capital structure maturing between February 2027 and February 2028, leading to a credit downgrade to 'B-' by S&P in early 2026. While SVC has proactively addressed near-term liquidity through a $745 million net lease securitization and a highly dilutive $500 million public equity offering in April 2026, the massive expansion of the share count pressures per-share metrics. Operational performance remains stable with solid net lease occupancy and rising hotel RevPAR, but persistent GAAP net losses and refinancing risks warrant a cautious Hold stance until the capital structure stabilizes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.50 Mean target$12.19 High · most bullish analyst$17.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case involves persistent operational headwinds in the hospitality sector and an inability to refinance upcoming maturities on favorable terms. High borrowing costs and tight credit markets force SVC into further highly dilutive equity raises or fire sales of core assets, shrinking the portfolio and leading to negative FFO growth. S&P or other rating agencies execute further downgrades as the capital structure becomes unsustainable. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes SVC successfully manages its upcoming 2027-2028 debt maturities using a combination of asset sales, securitizations, and the exercise of extension options. Hotel RevPAR continues to recover gradually, and the net lease portfolio maintains stable occupancy above 96%. The dilutive impact of the April 2026 equity offering is partially offset by interest savings from retired high-coupon debt, keeping Normalized FFO within the guided range of $0.24 to $0.27 per share for 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |