Service Corp International Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPersonal Services Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $71.62median of 6 methods · middle span $68-$116based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $76.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.4B Enterprise Value $15.5B Shares Outstanding 137.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SCI entered the second half of 2026 with constructive preneed demand, pricing and cash-flow trends, but funeral-volume variability and associated fixed-cost margin sensitivity temper the outlook. Second-quarter comparable funeral preneed production rose 6.6%, cemetery preneed production rose 8.0%, and management raised adjusted operating-cash-flow guidance while retaining the $4.20 adjusted-EPS midpoint. Conversely, comparable funeral services declined 1.4% and comparable funeral gross margin fell to 18.5%. The balanced evidence supports a neutral stance pending evidence that funeral volumes and margins stabilize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$97.00 Mean target$100.33 High · most bullish analyst$105.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $97.0020% Persistent funeral-volume declines pressure the high-fixed-cost funeral operation, pricing becomes insufficient to protect margins, and weaker trust-fund performance or cash collections reduces earnings and capital-return flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $100.3355% Matches the consensus meanPreneed growth, funeral pricing and cemetery performance broadly offset modest funeral-volume softness, allowing SCI to deliver near the $4.20 adjusted-EPS guidance midpoint and approximately $1.085 billion of adjusted operating cash flow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $105.0025% Sustained high-single-digit preneed production expands future revenue backlogs, funeral pricing continues to offset modest volume pressure, cemetery growth remains resilient, and adjusted EPS reaches the upper portion of the $4.10-$4.30 guidance range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |