Seritage Growth Properties Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryRetail REITs Beta (adjusted)1.80 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.70Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $95.8M Enterprise Value $95M Shares Outstanding 56.3M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Mar 2019 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Seritage Growth Properties is in the final stages of a shareholder-approved Plan of Sale, transitioning from an operating REIT to a liquidating entity. The investment thesis hinges entirely on the net asset value (NAV) of its remaining 10 properties relative to its outstanding liabilities (including $50 million in term loan debt and $70 million in preferred shares liquidation preference). While the common stock trades at a steep discount to historical book value, slow asset sale progress, a quarterly cash burn of $9-10 million, and a looming debt maturity on July 31, 2026, present significant execution risks. The stock is best viewed as a high-risk, special-situation liquidation play where the preferred shares may offer a safer risk-adjusted profile than the common equity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.5020% The company fails to refinance its maturing term loan, leading to a technical default or highly dilutive capital raise. Illiquid real estate markets force steep discounts on the remaining assets, and prolonged liquidation timelines result in severe cash burn that wipes out residual value for common shareholders after satisfying the $70 million preferred liquidation preference. Base CaseCentral scenario $2.7555% Seritage manages to address its upcoming $50 million debt maturity through alternative financing or short-term extensions, albeit at higher interest costs. Asset sales proceed slowly throughout 2026 and 2027, with ongoing operational cash burn of ~$9 million per quarter eroding a portion of the final liquidation pool. The company eventually winds down with modest distributions to common shareholders. Bull CaseUpside scenario $4.5025% The company successfully refinances or extends its July 2026 debt maturity without dilutive equity issuance. Commercial real estate markets stabilize, allowing Seritage to monetize its remaining 10 properties (0.8 million sq. ft. and 154 acres) at or near book value, yielding total liquidation proceeds that exceed current market expectations. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |