Seres Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Seres Therapeutics Inc

MCRBNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.49

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $2.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $29.4M

Shares Outstanding 9.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Seres Therapeutics is undergoing a critical strategic and financial transition. Following the divestiture of its lead commercial asset, VOWST, to Nestlé Health Science in late 2024, the company has pivoted to a clinical-stage focus on its emerging live biotherapeutic portfolio for inflammatory and immune diseases. While the company's cash runway was previously constrained to Q3 2026, two major transactions announced in June 2026—a $25 million buyout of future VOWST milestones by Nestlé and a major lease restructuring at its Cambridge facility—have successfully extended its operating cash runway well into the first quarter of 2027. However, the company continues to face substantial going-concern risks and has paused its Phase 2-ready SER-155 program in allo-HSCT pending external funding. Near-term valuation will be heavily driven by the upcoming clinical readout of the investigator-sponsored SER-155 study in immune checkpoint inhibitor-related enterocolitis (irEC) and the company's ability to secure non-dilutive partnerships.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.00

Mean target$17.00

High · most bullish analyst$22.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$3.0020%

The investigator-sponsored SER-155 irEC study yields ambiguous or unfavorable clinical results, dampening partner interest. Seres fails to secure strategic collaborations or non-dilutive funding for its pipeline before late 2026, forcing the company to raise capital through highly dilutive equity offerings or further restrict its early-stage pipeline development, exacerbating going-concern risks as it nears the end of its cash runway in Q1 2027.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$17.0055%

Matches the consensus mean

Seres reports positive but incremental clinical data from the investigator-sponsored SER-155 irEC study. The company continues to exercise rigorous financial discipline, keeping operating expenses low through its restructured lease and reduced headcount. It actively pursues but experiences typical clinical-stage delays in securing a strategic partner or external funding for the SER-155 Phase 2 allo-HSCT study, keeping the stock range-bound as the Q1 2027 cash runway approaches.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$22.0025%

The upcoming investigator-sponsored trial readout for SER-155 in irEC demonstrates strong clinical efficacy, validating the breadth of Seres' live biotherapeutic platform and attracting a major pharmaceutical partner. This partnership provides substantial upfront non-dilutive capital, allowing Seres to resume its Phase 2 study of SER-155 in allo-HSCT and accelerate IND-enabling work for SER-603, eliminating going-concern doubts and driving significant stock re-rating.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Runway extension well into Q1 2027 achieved through the $25 million Nestlé milestone buyout and facility lease restructuring, reducing near-term dilution risk.
SER-155 has received FDA Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations, validating its clinical potential in preventing bacterial bloodstream infections in allo-HSCT patients.
Upcoming near-term clinical catalyst with the investigator-sponsored SER-155 study readout in immune checkpoint inhibitor-related enterocolitis (irEC).
Strong scientific foundation and established MbTx discovery platform with proven regulatory capability (previously securing the first-ever oral LBP FDA approval for VOWST).

Key Investment Risks

Substantial doubt remains regarding the company's ability to continue as a going concern beyond early 2027 without securing additional financing or partnerships.
The lead clinical program (SER-155 Phase 2 in allo-HSCT) is currently paused due to lack of funding, delaying potential commercialization timelines.
Milestone buyout transaction with Nestlé limits long-term upside from VOWST net sales in exchange for immediate, smaller liquidity.
High dependence on clinical-stage binary readouts and successful execution of strategic business development partnerships.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the investigator-sponsored SER-155 irEC study to meet safety or efficacy endpoints.
Inability to secure a strategic partner or alternative financing for the SER-155 Phase 2 allo-HSCT study by the end of 2026.
Unexpected increases in operating expenses or failure to realize projected lease cost savings.
Regulatory delays or negative feedback from the FDA regarding IND-enabling work for SER-603.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.