Sera Prognostics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $2.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $80.5M Enterprise Value $76.1M Shares Outstanding 39.4M diluted Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sera Prognostics is transitioning from a clinical validation phase to commercial execution following the landmark publication of its PRIME study in January 2026. The study demonstrated that the PreTRM blood test significantly reduces early preterm births and newborn complications, establishing a robust clinical and economic value proposition. While near-term revenues remain modest and uneven as the company pivots its strategy, its strong cash position of $86.8 million (as of March 31, 2026) provides a runway through 2029. This long runway, combined with a planned $10 million annual operating expense reduction, significantly mitigates dilution risk and positions the company to achieve key commercial milestones. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.00 Mean target$5.50 High · most bullish analyst$6.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.37 Payer adoption and reimbursement negotiations progress slower than expected, resulting in prolonged flat revenues. The company is forced to utilize its ATM facility to raise capital, causing shareholder dilution, or must further delay its commercial expansion plans. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.10 Steady, geographically targeted commercialization of the PreTRM test across Wave 1 and Wave 2 states. Revenue remains modest in 2026 but begins to scale in 2027 as payer programs transition from setup to active implementation. The company successfully executes its $10 million cost-reduction plan, maintaining its cash runway through 2029. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.00 Rapid adoption of the PreTRM test by major commercial and Medicaid payers following the PRIME study publication. The company successfully expands its partner programs to 15-17 states by the end of 2026, driving exponential revenue growth in 2027. Regulatory approval (CE Mark) is obtained ahead of schedule, unlocking European markets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |