Senti Biosciences Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Senti Biosciences Holdings Inc

SNTINASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.75

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $0.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $10.1M

Enterprise Value $22.8M

Shares Outstanding 35.5M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Senti Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (formerly Senti Biosciences, Inc.) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Gene Circuit platform to develop logic-gated, off-the-shelf CAR-NK cell therapies. The investment thesis centers on the rapid clinical progress of its lead candidate, SENTI-202, which recently completed a positive FDA RMAT meeting. The FDA aligned on a single-arm, multi-center registrational trial pathway for relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (R/R AML). Crucially, Senti identified a specific 'Donor X' phenotype that correlates with a 50% composite complete remission rate in Phase 1, providing a clear biological biomarker to optimize future trials. While severe liquidity pressure exists (with $8.9 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, and a going-concern warning), the company has structured a strategic $40 million senior secured convertible note facility with Celadon Partners, which significantly mitigates near-term insolvency risk and funds the transition into pivotal clinical development.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.00

Mean target$13.50

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case assumes delays in initiating the pivotal trial or manufacturing challenges related to sourcing the Donor X phenotype. If Celadon fails to fund subsequent tranches of the convertible notes or if the at-the-market equity program is highly dilutive due to a depressed stock price, the company may face severe restructuring or insolvency.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes Senti successfully initiates its single-arm pivotal trial for SENTI-202 in R/R AML using the Donor X phenotype. The $40 million Celadon financing facility is fully drawn down in tranches, extending the cash runway into 2027. Clinical data from the pivotal trial continues to show durable, MRD-negative complete remissions comparable to or better than the 37.5% cCR observed at the recommended Phase 2 dose in Phase 1, leading to accelerated FDA approval.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Senti's proprietary Gene Circuit platform (including logic gates and calibrated-release cytokines) has the potential to overcome major limitations of current cell and gene therapies. The lead program SENTI-202 has received FDA RMAT designation and demonstrated MRD-negative complete remissions in early clinical trials, with substantial valuation upside implied by analyst price targets of up to $12.00-13.00.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Positive FDA RMAT meeting aligning on a single-arm, multi-center registrational trial pathway for SENTI-202, significantly shortening the timeline to potential commercialization.
Identification of the 'Donor X' phenotype biomarker, which demonstrated a 50% composite complete remission rate in Phase 1, providing a high-probability design for the pivotal trial.
Strategic $40 million senior secured convertible note financing facility with Celadon Partners to extend operational runway.
Proprietary Gene Circuit platform (Logic Gating, Multi-Arming, Regulator Dials) with broad applicability across oncology and other therapeutic areas.

Key Investment Risks

Severe near-term liquidity constraints and going-concern doubts, with operations heavily reliant on timely tranches of debt/equity financing.
Clinical trial execution risks, including potential delays in patient enrollment or sourcing sufficient donor material matching the Donor X phenotype.
High historical cash burn rate relative to current cash reserves.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to secure the initial or subsequent tranches of the Celadon convertible note financing.
FDA clinical hold or safety concerns arising during the pivotal trial of SENTI-202.
Pivotal trial efficacy data falling significantly below the Phase 1 historical benchmarks (e.g., composite complete remission rate dropping below 30%).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.