Senseonics Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $9.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $526.6M Enterprise Value $537.7M Shares Outstanding 55.3M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Senseonics is entering a critical commercial inflection point as it transitions its sales and marketing infrastructure fully in-house from Ascensia. The launch of the Eversense 365 system, the world's first and only one-year continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system, combined with expanded automated insulin delivery (AID) compatibility (such as the twiist system integration), positions the company to capture significant market share in the rapidly growing diabetes technology sector. While near-term operating losses remain high due to transition and direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing costs, the substantial expansion in gross margins and robust top-line growth support a highly favorable long-term outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$13.40 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.0015% The transition of commercial operations in Europe faces integration delays, and DTC marketing efforts yield lower-than-expected conversion rates. Intense competition from established players like Dexcom and Abbott limits market penetration, leading to prolonged cash burn, potential dilution from further equity raises, and a delay in the Gemini clinical timeline. Base CaseCentral scenario $14.0060% Senseonics successfully completes the commercial transition from Ascensia in the US and Europe, achieving its raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $60 million to $64 million. Gross margins stabilize between 55% and 58%, and the company continues to expand its prescriber base and DTC patient acquisition channels while managing cash burn within guided levels. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0025% Accelerated adoption of Eversense 365 in both the US and Europe, coupled with rapid integration into multiple AID pump systems, drives revenue growth above the high end of guidance. Gross margins expand beyond 60% due to manufacturing efficiencies, and the Gemini trial completes ahead of schedule, paving the way for a highly anticipated flash/full-service CGM launch. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |