Semtech Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Semtech Corp

SMTCNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.90

Intrinsic Value $54.37median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 26 Apr 2026

Market Price $186.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 71% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-71%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $17.4B

Enterprise Value $17.7B

Shares Outstanding 96.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Sep 1980

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Semtech entered the second half of FY2027 with substantial operating momentum: Q2 net sales reached a record $341.9 million, adjusted gross margin was 54.5%, and adjusted operating margin was 24.4%. Management's Q3 outlook calls for another sharp revenue increase and further margin expansion, supported by accelerating bookings, record backlog, AI-data-center products and LoRa.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$175.00

Mean target$205.25

High · most bullish analyst$230.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$175.0020%

Revenue or margins fall below the Q3 guidance ranges as AI-related demand concentration, semiconductor cyclicality, customer concentration, supply constraints, trade restrictions or divestiture execution issues interrupt backlog conversion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$205.2555%

Matches the consensus mean

Semtech performs broadly within its Q3 revenue and margin guidance while progressing the cellular-module divestiture. Growth remains strong but moderates after the initial product ramps.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$230.0025%

Bookings and backlog convert at or above the Q3 outlook, high-margin AI-data-center and LoRa products drive mix improvement, and portfolio optimization produces a more focused and predictable earnings profile.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 FY2027 net sales increased 33% year over year to a record $341.9 million, while adjusted operating margin expanded to 24.4%.
The Q3 FY2027 outlook calls for $410.0 million of net sales, plus or minus $5.0 million, and a 31.0% adjusted operating margin, plus or minus 60 basis points.
Management reported accelerating bookings and record backlog, while the cellular-module business was classified as held for sale and new LoRa products entered production.

Key Investment Risks

Demand is increasingly exposed to AI-related semiconductors and remains subject to semiconductor cyclicality, declining average selling prices and concentration among a limited number of customers.
Semtech depends on a limited number of suppliers and subcontractors and is exposed to capacity constraints, export restrictions, tariffs and adverse economic conditions in China.
The pending cellular-module divestiture introduces execution risk, while indebtedness and related covenants may constrain strategic flexibility.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.