Sempra Dossier - Source-backed chat

Sempra

SRENYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryMulti-Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value $70.00median of 6 methods · middle span $62-$72based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $78.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $51B

Enterprise Value $62.2B

Shares Outstanding 656.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend25 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

The investment case is favorable but execution-sensitive. Sempra reported $2.67 of adjusted EPS for the first half of 2026, reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.80-$5.30 and FY2027 EPS guidance of $5.10-$5.70, and is deploying a $64.9 billion 2026-2030 capital plan concentrated in Texas and California utilities. The completed Ecogas sale generated approximately $500 million, while the pending Sempra Infrastructure transaction could further simplify the portfolio, reduce funding pressure and increase the regulated-utility earnings mix. Principal risks are transaction timing, ECA LNG compressor remediation, regulatory cost recovery, customer affordability, wildfire exposure and capital-market conditions.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$93.00

Mean target$104.62

High · most bullish analyst$118.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$75.0020%

The Sempra Infrastructure sale is delayed or delivers weaker-than-expected balance-sheet benefits, ECA LNG remediation extends beyond 2026, and regulatory or affordability constraints reduce cost recovery or planned capital deployment. A material wildfire event, adverse financing conditions or weaker Oncor distributions would further pressure the valuation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$104.6255%

Matches the consensus mean

The KKR transaction closes with no material deterioration in terms, FY2026 adjusted EPS lands within the affirmed range, and the $64.9 billion capital plan progresses broadly as scheduled. Texas growth offsets normal California regulatory friction, while ECA LNG reaches substantial completion after the announced remediation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$120.0025%

The KKR transaction closes on schedule, the associated funding and debt-deconsolidation benefits materialize, ECA LNG remediation is completed in the fourth quarter, and Oncor converts a meaningful portion of its 44 GW eligible large-load pipeline into regulated investment. Earnings approach the upper end of guidance and the utility-focused capital plan earns constructive regulatory returns.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Approximately 95% of the 2026-2030 capital plan is allocated to Texas and California utilities, improving the visibility of regulated growth.
Oncor reported approximately 44 GW of eligible large-load requests and Sempra identified more than $7 billion of incremental high-voltage transmission investment opportunities.
The completed Ecogas sale generated approximately $500 million, while the pending KKR transaction is intended to simplify the portfolio and reduce future common-equity funding needs.
First-half adjusted EPS increased to $2.67 from $2.34, and management reaffirmed both FY2026 adjusted EPS and FY2027 EPS guidance.

Key Investment Risks

The sale of a 45% interest in Sempra Infrastructure remained pending as of August 31, 2026 and was still subject to approvals and closing conditions.
ECA LNG Phase 1 discovered damage in refrigerant compressors and extended commissioning, creating schedule and remediation risk.
California wildfire exposure, affordability constraints and adverse regulatory cost-recovery decisions could impair earnings or planned investment.
Capital-market instability, higher financing costs and restrictions on Oncor distributions could weaken funding capacity or cash realization.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.