SelectQuote Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance Brokers Beta (adjusted)1.42 Intrinsic Value $7.27median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $0.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 1590% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+1,590%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $75.2M Enterprise Value $415.8M Shares Outstanding 176.3M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SelectQuote is successfully transitioning from a pure-play insurance broker into a diversified senior healthcare services ecosystem, anchored by its rapidly growing SelectRx pharmacy platform. While the core Medicare Advantage distribution business continues to deliver solid operational metrics (such as a 6.7x revenue-to-CAC multiple), the company faces ongoing regulatory headwinds, shifting enrollment dynamics, and near-term reimbursement pressures in its pharmacy segment. Reaffirming its fiscal 2026 guidance indicates stabilization, but sustainable long-term profitability and cash flow generation remain key execution milestones that warrant a neutral stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1.25 Mean target$3.06 High · most bullish analyst$5.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.0020% Regulatory changes from CMS severely impact Medicare Advantage commission structures, and persistent pharmacy reimbursement pressures drag Healthcare Services EBITDA below breakeven, straining the company's highly leveraged balance sheet. Base CaseCentral scenario $2.0550% SelectQuote achieves its reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance of $1.61 billion to $1.71 billion in revenue and $90 million to $100 million in Adjusted EBITDA. Core Medicare Advantage enrollment remains stable, and SelectRx continues steady, moderate growth while managing reimbursement headwinds. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3.0030% SelectRx scales rapidly with improved reimbursement terms, driving the Healthcare Services segment to its targeted $40 million to $50 million Adjusted EBITDA run-rate. Simultaneously, high agent productivity and favorable commission estimate adjustments boost Senior segment margins. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |