Selective Insurance Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)0.53 Intrinsic Value $110.71median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $84.90Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.1B Enterprise Value $5.6B Shares Outstanding 60.1M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) represents a disciplined, super-regional property and casualty insurer celebrating its 100th year in business. The company's core appeal lies in its high-tech, high-touch operating model, strong independent agent relationships, and historical underwriting discipline. However, near-term headwinds including elevated catastrophe losses, slowing premium growth, and margin pressure in standard commercial lines warrant a cautious stance. While the company continues to generate double-digit operating ROEs in line with its long-term targets, current valuation multiples reflect these balanced risk-reward dynamics, making a Hold recommendation appropriate. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$102.86 High · most bullish analyst$115.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Social inflation and severe weather events continue to pressure underwriting margins, pushing the combined ratio consistently above 99%. Competitive pressures in standard commercial lines limit the company's ability to push necessary rate increases, leading to negative premium growth and market share erosion. Investment yields decline, dragging operating ROE below the 12% target. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully navigates the competitive pricing environment, maintaining renewal pure price increases near loss cost trends. Underwriting margins stabilize as catastrophe activity normalizes toward historical averages, allowing the company to meet its full-year GAAP combined ratio target of 96.5% to 97.5%. Steady investment yields continue to support a double-digit operating ROE. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |