Security National Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryLife & Health Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $8.65median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $8.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $229.2M Enterprise Value $174.5M Shares Outstanding 25.4M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Security National Financial Corporation (SNFCA) is a diversified holding company operating across three distinct segments: Life Insurance, Cemetery and Mortuary, and Mortgage. The company has demonstrated solid operational resilience, with 2025 after-tax earnings from operations growing 10.8% year-over-year to $32,152,000 on a 3% revenue increase to $344,587,000. Book value per share expanded to $16.54. While the Mortgage segment continues to face headwinds from elevated interest rates, it has shown significant operational improvements, narrowing its losses. The Life Insurance segment is undergoing a deliberate sales force reorganization to phase out low-profitability products, which has caused short-term top-line pressure but supports long-term margin expansion. Given the dual-class share structure that concentrates voting control with the Quist family and the cyclical headwinds in the mortgage market, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the company executes its operational turnarounds. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.0020% Interest rates remain elevated for longer, severely depressing mortgage volumes and leading to persistent operating losses in the Mortgage segment. Reorganization friction in the Life Insurance segment continues to drag down premium growth, while rising operational costs compress overall margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.5050% The Mortgage segment continues its gradual recovery, benefiting from incremental operational efficiencies and cost reductions. The Life Insurance segment stabilizes as sales force reorganization efforts conclude, while the Cemetery and Mortuary segment maintains steady mid-single-digit growth. Book value continues to compound at a steady rate. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.5030% A rapid decline in interest rates stimulates a strong rebound in residential mortgage originations and refinancing volumes, turning the Mortgage segment highly profitable. Concurrently, the reorganized life insurance sales force successfully accelerates the distribution of high-margin niche funeral plans, driving double-digit top-line growth. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |