SeaStar Medical Holding Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

SeaStar Medical Holding Corp

ICUNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Equipment

Beta (adjusted)-0.35

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $3.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $16.5M

Enterprise Value $10.2M

Shares Outstanding 4.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

SeaStar Medical is transitioning into a commercial-stage medical technology company, driven by the early adoption of its FDA-approved QUELIMMUNE pediatric Selective Cytopheretic Device (SCD) therapy. While commercial traction is visible with hospital customer expansion to 17 centers and a 69% YoY revenue increase in Q1 2026, the company faces severe near-term liquidity constraints. With only $9.3 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, and an ongoing going concern warning, SeaStar is highly dependent on dilutive equity financing to fund its pivotal NEUTRALIZE-AKI adult trial. A Hold rating is recommended until the adult trial enrollment is completed (expected late 2026) and the company secures a more stable, non-dilutive capital runway.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$10.00

High · most bullish analyst$12.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$3.0020%

Clinical trial enrollment delays push the NEUTRALIZE-AKI timeline into late 2027, accelerating cash burn. The company is forced to execute highly dilutive equity offerings at depressed share prices to survive, severely eroding shareholder value. Pediatric QUELIMMUNE adoption plateaus due to slow institutional IRB approvals.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$8.0060%

The company successfully completes enrollment for the NEUTRALIZE-AKI adult trial by the end of 2026, paving the way for a modular PMA submission in 2027. QUELIMMUNE pediatric sales continue to scale, achieving the company's target of approximately $2.0 million in net product revenue for 2026. Dilution from the Lincoln Park Capital equity line is managed incrementally, keeping the company funded through the clinical readout.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$12.0030%

QUELIMMUNE pediatric sales accelerate rapidly, exceeding the $2.0 million target for 2026. The NEUTRALIZE-AKI adult trial completes enrollment ahead of schedule in late 2026, leading to positive top-line results in mid-2027 and a rapid FDA PMA approval. The company successfully secures non-dilutive funding or a strategic partnership, minimizing equity dilution.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-in-class Selective Cytopheretic Device (SCD) technology targeting hyperinflammation and organ failure.
FDA approval of QUELIMMUNE provides a commercial proof-of-concept and established pediatric hospital relationships.
Six FDA Breakthrough Device Designations across adult and pediatric indications, enabling expedited regulatory pathways.

Key Investment Risks

Acute going concern risk with only $9.3 million in cash as of Q1 2026, insufficient to fund 12 months of operations.
High risk of shareholder dilution due to active equity resale registration statements (e.g., Lincoln Park Capital).
Clinical execution risk associated with completing the 339-patient NEUTRALIZE-AKI adult trial.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A negative recommendation or safety halt from the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) for the NEUTRALIZE-AKI trial.
Inability to raise additional capital, leading to a suspension of clinical operations or restructuring.
Severe regulatory delays or a Refusal to File letter from the FDA regarding the adult AKI PMA modules.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.