Seagate Technology Holdings plc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Beta (adjusted)1.73 Intrinsic Value $744.69median of 6 methods · middle span $140-$4,719based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $945.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $215B Enterprise Value $216.9B Shares Outstanding 229M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Seagate enters fiscal 2027 with exceptional operating momentum: fiscal 2026 revenue reached $12.195 billion, fourth-quarter GAAP gross margin reached 52.3%, fiscal-year free cash flow reached $3.105 billion, and management guided FQ1 2027 to $4.1 billion of revenue and $7.30 of non-GAAP diluted EPS at the midpoint. The structural case is supported by volume production of Mozaic 4+ drives at two leading hyperscale providers, capacities up to 44TB, additional qualifications under way and a roadmap toward 100TB drives. These strengths are balanced by storage-cycle sensitivity, dependence on continued hyperscale qualification and adoption, potential dilution associated with exchangeable notes, and guidance assumptions concerning tariffs and geopolitical disruptions. A Hold recommendation reflects strong fundamentals but a scenario distribution in which further upside depends on sustained margins and broader HAMR adoption. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$700.00 Mean target$1,115.87 High · most bullish analyst$1,600.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $700.0018% Cloud customers defer deployments, HAMR qualifications fail to broaden, or pricing and product mix normalize faster than expected. Quarterly revenue falls below guidance and gross margin drops below 45%, reducing cash generation while exchangeable-note settlement increases share dilution. Base CaseCentral scenario $1,115.8756% Matches the consensus meanSeagate delivers approximately the FQ1 2027 outlook, maintains quarterly GAAP gross margin at or above 45%, and expands Mozaic adoption gradually beyond the two currently qualified hyperscale providers. Growth moderates after the fiscal 2026 rebound but remains supported by cloud demand and higher drive capacities. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1,600.0026% Cloud and AI-related exabyte demand remains robust, Mozaic 4+ gains additional hyperscale qualifications, and higher-capacity drives sustain favorable pricing and manufacturing economics. Revenue remains above company guidance and quarterly GAAP gross margin remains near the fiscal-fourth-quarter level. Continued cash generation supports debt reduction and shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |