Seadrill Ltd Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Drilling Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $40.30median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $45.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.8B Enterprise Value $3.2B Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Seadrill is successfully transitioning from financial restructuring to operational growth, supported by a tightening ultra-deepwater (UDW) floater market and robust contract coverage. The company's strategic focus on high-specification drillships, particularly in key offshore basins like Brazil, Angola, and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, provides strong revenue visibility through 2028 and beyond. With a recently upsized $700 million debt refinancing extending its maturity profile to 2034 and an expected free cash flow inflection in mid-2026, Seadrill is well-positioned to deliver significant shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$53.33 High · most bullish analyst$80.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.00 A softening of deepwater drilling demand in the U.S. Gulf or Brazil leads to prolonged white space between contracts. Operational delays or cost overruns during rig mobilizations compress EBITDA margins. Geopolitical tensions or a sharp decline in crude oil prices prompt operators to defer capital commitments, limiting dayrate growth and delaying the anticipated free cash flow inflection. Base CaseCentral scenario $53.33 Matches the consensus meanSeadrill delivers on its updated full-year 2026 guidance of $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion in operating revenues and Adjusted EBITDA of $370 million to $420 million. Economic utilization remains stable around 95%, and the company successfully integrates reactivated rigs (West Capella and West Jupiter) on budget. Refinancing activities successfully lower interest expenses and extend debt maturities, supporting a steady valuation recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.00 Deepwater demand continues to strengthen, driving average contractual dayrates above $450,000. Successful execution of long-term contracts with Petrobras (such as the West Polaris extending to 2031) and rapid mobilization of reactivated rigs lead to higher-than-expected free cash flow. The company initiates a substantial share buyback program, and valuation multiples re-rate to align with historical premium peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |