Sea Ltd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Sea Ltd ADR

SENYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryBroadline Retail

Beta (adjusted)1.33

Intrinsic Value $136.59median of 6 methods · middle span $82-$248based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $95.27Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $58.4B

Enterprise Value $55.2B

Shares Outstanding 638.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Sea entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum across all three core platforms. Shopee's GMV grew 28.4% year over year, Monee expanded its loan portfolio by 62% while maintaining a 1.0% 90-day NPL ratio, and Garena bookings increased 15.5%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets28 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$101.00

Mean target$155.29

High · most bullish analyst$195.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$101.0023%

Competitive spending slows Shopee's GMV growth below 20%, Monee's rapid loan-book expansion produces a 90-day NPL ratio above 2%, or Garena bookings return to year-over-year contraction. Any combination of these outcomes would weaken the evidence that Sea's three-platform growth is durable.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$155.2957%

Matches the consensus mean

Shopee remains the principal growth engine but moderates from Q2's 28.4% GMV growth, Monee grows while credit quality gradually normalizes, and Garena remains profitable but comparatively volatile.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$195.0020%

Shopee sustains GMV growth near or above management's approximately 25% full-year outlook while operating efficiency improves; Monee continues rapid credit expansion without material deterioration in its 90-day NPL ratio; and Garena maintains positive bookings growth. This combination would demonstrate that Sea can compound across commerce, financial services, and entertainment simultaneously.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Shopee achieved 28.4% year-over-year GMV growth in Q2 2026 and management maintained an approximately 25% full-year growth outlook.
Monee's loan principal outstanding grew 62% year over year while its 90-day NPL ratio remained at 1.0%, indicating that reported growth had not yet produced material headline credit deterioration.
Garena bookings increased 15.5% year over year and quarterly active users reached 633.3 million, providing renewed support from Sea's digital-entertainment platform.

Key Investment Risks

Shopee operates in highly competitive e-commerce markets, and defending growth may require incentives, logistics spending, or other reinvestment that weakens incremental economics.
Monee's rapid loan growth increases exposure to underwriting, funding, provisioning, regulatory, and macroeconomic risks; the current 1.0% 90-day NPL ratio may not represent through-cycle performance.
Garena's engagement and bookings remain sensitive to game popularity, content cadence, platform policies, and the durability of key franchises.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.