Scorpio Tankers Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.18 Intrinsic Value $52.91median of 5 methods · middle span $43-$113based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $85.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $4.1B Shares Outstanding 46.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG) presents a compelling investment opportunity in the product tanker sector, characterized by a structurally tight supply-demand balance, geopolitical disruptions that extend voyage distances (tonne-mile demand), and a highly optimized, modern fleet. The company has successfully executed a massive deleveraging strategy, reducing net debt by approximately $2.5 billion since late 2021 to achieve a net cash position. With an exceptionally low daily cash breakeven rate of approximately $11,000, STNG possesses immense operating leverage, converting strong spot market rates directly into free cash flow. This financial strength supports aggressive capital returns through a newly replenished $500 million share buyback program and a stable dividend, alongside opportunistic fleet renewal. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$76.00 Mean target$95.40 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A rapid resolution of geopolitical conflicts leads to the reopening of the Red Sea, normalizing trade routes and reducing tonne-mile demand. Simultaneously, a global economic slowdown dampens refined product consumption, causing spot rates to fall toward historical averages of $15,000 to $20,000 per day. While STNG's low breakeven of $11,000 ensures it remains cash-flow positive, free cash flow generation and share repurchases slow down significantly. Base CaseCentral scenario The product tanker market remains robust through 2026, supported by ongoing Red Sea diversions and structural refinery dislocations. STNG maintains average TCE rates above $30,000 per day, generating substantial free cash flow. The company continues to aggressively buy back shares under its $500 million authorization, driving significant EPS accretion. Remaining newbuilding commitments are comfortably funded from organic cash generation without straining the balance sheet. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |