Science Applications International Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Science Applications International Corp

SAICNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryInformation Technology Services

Beta (adjusted)0.53

Intrinsic Value $109.19median of 6 methods · middle span $102-$277based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $126.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $5.3B

Enterprise Value $7.7B

Shares Outstanding 42.6M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Science Applications International Corp (SAIC) is executing a critical strategic pivot away from low-margin, commoditized enterprise IT contracts toward higher-value mission and engineering services. Under the leadership of CEO Toni Townes-Whitley, the company has demonstrated strong operational execution, delivering a record 11.6% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 FY27. However, organic revenue growth remains highly constrained (0.5% in Q1 FY27) due to significant recompete headwinds, including the transition of the State Department's Vanguard contract to the multi-award EVOLVE vehicle. While SAIC's robust free cash flow generation (guided at >$600 million for FY27) and aggressive capital return program provide a solid floor, the stock is currently fairly valued relative to its growth profile, warranting a Hold recommendation until organic growth accelerates.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$93.00

Mean target$120.00

High · most bullish analyst$137.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Severe recompete losses under the EVOLVE vehicle and slower-than-expected federal procurement cycles lead to organic revenue contraction of more than 2%. Margin pressure intensifies due to unsustainable civilian margins and execution challenges during the portfolio realignment, causing free cash flow to fall below the $600 million target.

Base CaseCentral scenario

SAIC successfully navigates its portfolio transition, stabilizing organic revenue growth at 1-2% while sustaining adjusted EBITDA margins in the 10.1% to 10.3% range. The company successfully defends its footprint under the new EVOLVE contract vehicle and continues to deploy its strong free cash flow toward share repurchases and debt paydown, maintaining net leverage near 3.0x.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational execution and margin expansion, highlighted by a record 11.6% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 FY27.
Robust and highly visible cash flow generation, with FY27 free cash flow guided at greater than $600 million (equivalent to ~$14 per share).
Disciplined capital allocation focused on shareholder returns, including a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.37 per share and active share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

Significant recompete headwinds, particularly the transition of the $250 million run-rate Vanguard contract to the multi-award EVOLVE vehicle.
Low organic revenue growth (0.5% in Q1 FY27) reflecting a cautious federal spending environment and selective bidding strategy.
Execution risks associated with the ongoing portfolio realignment away from commoditized enterprise IT services.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to win key task orders under the EVOLVE contract vehicle, leading to a material drop in the DHS or State Department business.
Adjusted EBITDA margins falling below 10.0% on a sustained basis due to pricing pressures or cost overruns.
Free cash flow generation dropping below $550 million, limiting the company's capacity for share repurchases and deleveraging.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.