Schrodinger Inc Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Information Services Beta (adjusted)1.43 Intrinsic Value $27.32median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 74.6M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Schrodinger, Inc. is uniquely positioned at the intersection of physics-based molecular simulation and machine learning. While the company is undergoing a near-term revenue recognition headwind due to its accelerated transition to hosted software licensing, its underlying operational metrics remain robust. The upcoming commercial launch of the Bunsen AI Co-Scientist in summer 2026 and a strong track record of therapeutics monetization (such as Lilly's $2.3 billion acquisition of Ajax Therapeutics) validate the long-term value of its computational platform. With a clear path to positive adjusted EBITDA by 2028, the current valuation represents an attractive entry point for long-term investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.00 Mean target$21.43 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.00 The transition to hosted software licensing causes prolonged revenue recognition delays and deeper-than-expected margin compression. Clinical trials for proprietary programs face safety or efficacy hurdles, and biopharma software spending slows down due to macroeconomic pressures. Base CaseCentral scenario $21.43 Matches the consensus meanSchrodinger successfully delivers on its FY 2026 guidance, achieving ACV of $218M-$228M and drug discovery revenue of $55M-$65M. The hosted software transition continues steadily, and the company remains on track for its 2028 financial objectives, including positive adjusted EBITDA. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.00 Rapid adoption of the Bunsen AI Co-Scientist drives high-margin throughput-based licensing revenue. Clinical data packages for SGR-1505 and SGR-3515 exceed expectations, leading to lucrative out-licensing partnerships. Software gross margins recover ahead of schedule to the high 70s. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |