Scholastic Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Scholastic Corp

SCHLNASDAQ

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryPublishing

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value $30.50median of 6 methods · middle span $7-$35based on filings through 31 May 2026

Market Price $35.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $660M

Enterprise Value $600.1M

Shares Outstanding 18.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date17 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Scholastic Corp is undergoing a pivotal operational transformation aimed at simplifying its business structure, reducing complexity, and optimizing its product portfolio. The company has significantly improved its liquidity profile by unlocking over $400 million in net proceeds through strategic sale-leaseback transactions of its real estate assets. This capital has been deployed to accelerate shareholder returns, including a $300 million share repurchase program and a consistent dividend payout. While its core school-based ecosystem (particularly Book Fairs) remains highly resilient with strong eWallet adoption and higher revenue per fair, the company continues to face persistent macroeconomic headwinds in school spending and supplemental curriculum markets, which drag on its Education Solutions division. Given the balanced outlook of robust capital returns and operational restructuring against sluggish top-line growth, a Hold recommendation is warranted.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$42.00

Mean target$42.00

High · most bullish analyst$42.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$35.0015%

The bear case reflects prolonged pressure on consumer spending in retail book markets and deeper cuts in school district budgets, leading to double-digit declines in Education Solutions. Restructuring efforts fail to deliver expected cost savings, and higher tariff rates or supply chain disruptions compress margins, leading to Adjusted EBITDA falling below $140 million.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$42.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Scholastic successfully executes its simplified operating structure and achieves its reaffirmed FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $146 million to $156 million. Book Fairs and Entertainment segments continue to offset soft retail book markets and flat-to-slightly-declining Education Solutions revenues. Share repurchases provide support to EPS, and the stock trades close to its historical valuation multiples.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$48.0025%

The bull case is driven by a faster-than-expected recovery in school district funding, accelerating the turnaround of the Education Solutions division. Additionally, rapid monetization of iconic intellectual property (such as Hunger Games and Dog Man franchises) through the integrated Children's Book Group and 9 Story Media Group expansion drives high-margin entertainment and trade revenue, pushing Adjusted EBITDA well above the high end of guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong liquidity and capital flexibility following over $400 million in net proceeds from sale-leaseback transactions.
Robust shareholder return program supported by a $300 million share repurchase authorization and steady dividend yield.
Highly resilient school-based distribution network (Book Fairs) with competitive advantages in student and family engagement.
Valuable intellectual property portfolio with cross-channel monetization potential via 9 Story Media Group.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent macroeconomic headwinds and budget constraints affecting school district spending on supplemental curriculum.
Softness in the consumer retail book market impacting Trade Publishing sales.
Exposure to international supply chain disruptions and potential tariff-related cost increases.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Education Solutions segment revenue declining by more than 10% in consecutive quarters.
Adjusted EBITDA falling below $140 million for fiscal year 2026.
Failure to maintain the net leverage target of 2.0x to 2.5x adjusted EBITDA due to operational cash flow deterioration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.