Scholar Rock Holding Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Scholar Rock Holding Corp

SRRKNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.77

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $46.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $5.6B

Enterprise Value $5.4B

Shares Outstanding 131.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Scholar Rock is on the verge of transitioning from a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company to a commercial-stage leader in myostatin biology. The company's lead candidate, apitegromab, is a first-in-class, muscle-targeted monoclonal antibody that has demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful motor function improvements in a pivotal Phase 3 trial (SAPPHIRE) for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). With a set PDUFA date of September 30, 2026, and dual fill-finish facilities established to mitigate manufacturing risks, Scholar Rock is well-positioned for a successful commercial launch. Backed by a robust balance sheet of $479.9 million in liquidity, the company has a clear runway to advance its broader pipeline, including next-generation myostatin inhibitor SRK-439 and the Phase 2 FORGE trial in FSHD.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$48.00

Mean target$60.38

High · most bullish analyst$76.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$48.00

The FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or delays approval due to persistent manufacturing facility classification issues at Catalent Indiana or the second fill-finish site. Commercial launch is pushed into 2027, accelerating cash burn and forcing highly dilutive equity raises. Competitors advance alternative muscle-targeted therapies, eroding Scholar Rock's first-mover advantage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$60.38

Matches the consensus mean

Apitegromab receives FDA approval by the September 30, 2026 PDUFA date. Commercial launch proceeds smoothly supported by dual fill-finish facilities, with initial revenues ramping up in late 2026 and 2027. The Phase 2 FORGE trial in FSHD initiates on schedule in mid-2026, and the company maintains its cash runway into 2027.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$76.00

The FDA approves apitegromab ahead of or on the September 30, 2026 PDUFA date with a broad label. Rapid commercial adoption in the U.S. and Europe (following a positive CHMP opinion) establishes apitegromab as the standard-of-care muscle-directed therapy, complementing existing SMN-targeted treatments. Early clinical data from next-generation candidate SRK-439 in cardiometabolic/obesity indications exceeds expectations, driving significant upward valuation revisions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-in-class muscle-targeted therapeutic candidate (apitegromab) with successful Phase 3 data in SMA.
Clear regulatory timeline with an accepted BLA and a defined PDUFA date of September 30, 2026.
De-risked manufacturing strategy utilizing dual fill-finish facilities to ensure commercial supply.
Strong liquidity position with $479.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of March 31, 2026.
Expansion potential into broader high-value indications such as FSHD and cardiometabolic/obesity muscle preservation.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory risk if the FDA delays approval or requests additional data.
Operational and execution risks associated with transitioning to a commercial-stage organization.
Dependence on third-party manufacturing partners (e.g., Catalent Indiana) for commercial supply.
High cash burn rate typical of late-stage biotech companies preparing for launch.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Receipt of a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA for apitegromab.
Significant delays in resolving manufacturing facility compliance issues.
Failure to initiate the Phase 2 FORGE trial in FSHD by the end of 2026.
Rapid depletion of cash reserves requiring highly dilutive financing ahead of commercial revenue generation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.