Schneider National Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Schneider National Inc

SNDRNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrucking

Beta (adjusted)1.12

Intrinsic Value $29.56median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$50based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $32.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $5.7B

Enterprise Value $5.8B

Shares Outstanding 176M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) is a premier multimodal transportation and logistics provider with a highly diversified service offering (Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics) and a conservative balance sheet. While the company is well-positioned to benefit from an eventual cyclical upturn in the freight market, near-term results continue to reflect margin compression and soft pricing. Management's focus on asset efficiency, cost-saving initiatives (targeting an incremental $40 million in 2026), and disciplined capital allocation are positive structural drivers. However, the stock's current valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages, and the expected near-term cycle-average yield does not fully compensate for the asset intensity and demand uncertainty of the trucking sector.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$32.00

Mean target$37.50

High · most bullish analyst$45.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$32.00

Prolonged freight overcapacity and persistent demand uncertainty delay the cyclical recovery into 2027. Elevated equipment, compliance, and fuel costs continue to squeeze operating margins, while transactional spot rates remain depressed. Schneider's increased capital expenditure program ($400M-$450M) weighs on free cash flow, and full-year EPS falls to the lower end of guidance ($0.70) or below.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$37.50

Matches the consensus mean

The freight market undergoes a gradual, supply-driven recovery through the second half of 2026. Contract rates stabilize and show modest single-digit improvements, while Schneider successfully executes its $40 million cost-savings program. Margins recover slowly from Q1 lows, and the company achieves full-year adjusted EPS within its guided range of $0.70 to $1.00 (consensus at $0.92).

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$45.00

An accelerating rationalization of industry capacity leads to a sharp tightening of driver supply and truck availability. This triggers double-digit increases in transactional spot rates and mid-to-high single-digit contract rate increases during the 2026 bid season. Schneider's high-operating-leverage Network and Intermodal segments rapidly convert these rate increases into substantial margin expansion, driving full-year EPS to the high end of guidance ($1.00) or above.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Diversified multimodal platform spanning Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics, which provides operational flexibility across different phases of the freight cycle.
Strong balance sheet with low leverage (Debt/Equity of 0.13) and solid liquidity ($265.1M in cash and marketable securities as of Q1 2026).
Proven execution on cost-control initiatives, achieving $40 million in savings in 2025 and targeting an additional $40 million in 2026.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to cyclical freight demand and spot market pricing volatility.
Persistent inflationary cost pressures, particularly in driver wages, equipment maintenance, and fuel.
Asset-heavy nature of the Truckload and Intermodal segments requires continuous capital reinvestment, limiting free cash flow conversion during downturns.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A severe macroeconomic downturn that sharply reduces consumer spending and industrial production, leading to a collapse in freight volumes.
Failure to achieve the targeted $40 million in incremental cost savings in 2026.
A significant downward revision of full-year 2026 EPS guidance below the current $0.70 to $1.00 range.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.