SBA Communications Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

SBA Communications Corp

SBACNASDAQ

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Specialty

Beta (adjusted)0.98

Intrinsic Value $233.62median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $158.02Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $16.8B

Shares Outstanding 105.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

SBA Communications combines a predominantly recurring site-leasing business, a portfolio of 46,390 communications sites and strong international growth with elevated leverage and material near-term domestic churn. Second-quarter 2026 AFFO per share declined to $3.05 from $3.17, while management maintained a full-year range of $11.95-$12.40. The July unsecured-note issuance, expanded revolver and BBB upgrade improve financial flexibility, but net leverage remains 6.4x and 2026 leasing guidance incorporates $55-$56 million of Sprint consolidation churn plus $56 million of EchoStar churn.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$167.00

Mean target$228.25

High · most bullish analyst$280.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$167.0026%

The shares retest their $162.41 52-week low if leasing revenue or AFFO falls below guidance, domestic churn persists beyond the expected timetable, acquisition and build returns disappoint, or leverage rises above management's 7.0x target ceiling.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$228.2556%

Matches the consensus mean

The shares remain near the current $190.95 quotation as steady carrier activity, international growth and portfolio expansion broadly offset Sprint, EchoStar and regular churn, leaving results within management's 2026 outlook.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$280.0018%

The shares revisit their $224.46 52-week high if SBA reaches the upper end of its 2026 AFFO and leasing outlook, international leasing continues growing strongly, new Central American tower construction scales and spectrum-related U.S. deployments improve the domestic leasing trajectory.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Site leasing generated 98.2% of total operating profit in the second quarter, and the 46,390-site portfolio produced a 79.5% tower cash-flow margin.
The July 2026 issuance of $3.5 billion of unsecured senior notes, replacement of the secured revolver with a $2.5 billion unsecured facility and S&P upgrade to BBB strengthen liquidity and refinancing flexibility.
International site-leasing revenue increased 30.5% year over year, or 22.4% excluding foreign exchange, supported by acquired sites and expanding Central American construction activity.

Key Investment Risks

Domestic site-leasing revenue declined 3.7% year over year, while the 2026 revenue bridge includes $55-$56 million of Sprint consolidation churn and $56 million of EchoStar churn.
SBA reported $12.4 billion of net debt and 6.4x net debt to annualized Adjusted EBITDA, leaving earnings and capital allocation sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
International expansion increases exposure to foreign exchange, regulatory execution and acquisition integration; management's outlook explicitly depends on assumed exchange rates and contracted asset closings.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.