Savers Value Village Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $10.61median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$14based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $9.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 159.3M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV) is the largest for-profit thrift retailer in the United States and Canada, operating a highly resilient, vertically integrated circular economy model. Despite a significant stock price decline over the past year, the company's underlying fundamentals continue to improve, driven by robust U.S. comparable store sales growth (6.4% in Q1 2026) and an aggressive store expansion strategy (targeting 25 new stores in 2026). While macroeconomic pressures in Canada and elevated net debt ($652.7 million) act as near-term headwinds, the stock trades at a compelling valuation discount relative to its strong operating cash flow generation. Recent debt refinancing, which reduced applicable rates on existing term loans, further enhances the company's financial flexibility and earnings flow-through. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.00 Mean target$14.55 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $11.00 Discretionary consumer spending pulls back sharply, severely impacting comparable store sales in both the U.S. and Canada. Wage inflation and elevated capital expenditures ($135 million) for store expansion compress operating margins. Sourcing of high-quality donated merchandise becomes constrained or more expensive, and high leverage limits financial flexibility, driving the stock toward its 52-week low. Base CaseCentral scenario $14.55 Matches the consensus meanThe company achieves its full-year 2026 guidance of $1.76 billion to $1.79 billion in revenue and $260 million to $275 million in adjusted EBITDA. U.S. store growth offsets subdued performance in the mature Canadian market. Operating margins remain flat in 2026 at approximately 23.2% before expanding in 2027 as new stores mature. Net leverage remains stable in the mid-3x area, supported by positive free operating cash flow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.00 Accelerated adoption of thrift shopping among younger, affluent U.S. consumers drives higher-than-expected comparable store sales. Successful execution of the 25 new store openings in underpenetrated U.S. markets, combined with operational efficiency initiatives like Automated Book Processing, expands EBITDA margins toward 24.0%. Rapid deleveraging occurs as free operating cash flow exceeds expectations, prompting a valuation re-rating closer to off-price retail peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |