Satellogic Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.24 Intrinsic Value $6.18median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $833.3M Enterprise Value $810.2M Shares Outstanding 153.7M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Satellogic Inc. (NASDAQ: SATL) has reached a clear operational and financial inflection point in 2026. The company is successfully transitioning from a capital-intensive hardware manufacturer to a high-margin, high-frequency Earth Observation (EO) and Space-as-a-Service provider. Driven by strong sovereign defense demand, Satellogic achieved 80% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2026 and posted its first-ever quarter of positive operating cash flow. Backed by a robust $64.8M backlog, a well-capitalized balance sheet ($121.9M in cash), and the upcoming launch of its AI-first Merlin constellation in October 2026, Satellogic offers an asymmetric growth opportunity with a highly competitive unit-economic advantage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$11.28 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.5015% The Merlin constellation faces launch delays or technical failures in orbit, stalling commercial momentum. Sovereign defense procurement cycles lengthen, or contract execution is delayed by regulatory hurdles, leading to lumpy revenue and cash burn. High stock volatility and potential future dilution pressure the share price. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.0060% Satellogic steadily executes on its $64.8M backlog and successfully delivers on its $12M and $18M defense contracts. The Merlin constellation launches on schedule, supporting mid-50% revenue growth. Operating cash flow remains positive and gradually improves, while the company continues to narrow its adjusted EBITDA losses, moving toward breakeven within 2-3 years. Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.0025% The upcoming Merlin constellation launch in October 2026 is highly successful, driving rapid adoption of daily global remapping services. Sovereign defense customers accelerate purchases of in-orbit satellites and high-frequency monitoring subscriptions, converting the company's $1B+ pipeline into recognized revenue. Operating leverage scales rapidly, pushing gross margins toward the 60-70% target and achieving GAAP profitability ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |