Sarepta Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.47 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $17.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.9B Enterprise Value $2.1B Shares Outstanding 105.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sarepta Therapeutics is navigating a transitional phase in 2026 following a highly volatile 2025 marked by safety setbacks, clinical holds, and a significant share price decline. While the company's Q1 2026 financial performance was bolstered by substantial collaboration revenues from Roche, its core product revenues—particularly ELEVIDYS—remain under pressure due to a narrowed label restricting treatment to ambulatory patients. The upcoming retirement of long-standing CEO Douglas Ingram by the end of 2026 adds leadership uncertainty. However, Sarepta maintains a solid cash position of $748.3 million, enabling self-funded pipeline advancement without immediate equity dilution. A Hold rating is maintained pending regulatory outcomes for its PMO therapies and commercial stabilization of ELEVIDYS. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.00 Mean target$22.09 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.0020% The FDA rejects the sNDAs for AMONDYS 45 and VYONDYS 53, risking the loss of marketing authorization. Competitive entrants (e.g., Dyne Therapeutics) erode PMO market share, and ELEVIDYS sales fall below the $500 million floor due to safety concerns and strict monitoring requirements, leading to further cash burn. Base CaseCentral scenario $22.0955% Matches the consensus meanSarepta stabilizes its core PMO business and achieves its FY 2026 product revenue guidance of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. The CEO transition proceeds smoothly, and ELEVIDYS maintains a steady but slow uptake within its restricted ambulatory label. Valuation multiples remain compressed due to competitive threats and safety overhangs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.0025% The FDA grants traditional approval for AMONDYS 45 and VYONDYS 53, securing the durability of the PMO franchise. Simultaneously, ELEVIDYS sales exceed the $500 million floor through successful commercial execution, and the next-generation siRNA pipeline delivers outstanding clinical data, restoring investor confidence and driving multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |