Saratoga Investment Corp Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $10.64median of 4 methods · middle span $10-$11based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $16.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $268.9M Enterprise Value $1B Shares Outstanding 16.8M diluted Next Earnings Date6 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend5 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Saratoga Investment Corp. (NYSE: SAR) is a business development company (BDC) specializing in senior-secured lending to middle-market companies. While the company maintains a high-quality credit portfolio with exceptionally low non-accruals (0.2% of fair value) and offers an attractive dividend yield, it faces headwinds from declining base interest rates (SOFR) and margin normalization. Net investment income (NII) per share has declined from historical peaks, reflecting lower asset yields and higher funding costs following recent debt refinancings. A 'Hold' rating is recommended as the stock trades near its net asset value, balancing its strong credit underwriting against macroeconomic spread compression. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$21.20 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $22.0020% A severe economic downturn leads to a spike in middle-market defaults, pushing non-accruals above historical averages. Rapidly falling interest rates compress interest margins further, while credit losses erode NAV. The company is forced to reduce its dividend to preserve capital, causing multiple contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.2060% Base interest rates gradually decline and stabilize, leading to a moderate compression in the weighted average portfolio yield. Originations outpace repayments to keep AUM stable. Credit performance remains solid with non-accruals staying below 1.0% of cost. The company maintains its quarterly base dividend of $0.75 per share, and the stock trades close to its historical price-to-book value. Bull CaseUpside scenario $25.0020% A stabilization or unexpected rise in base interest rates combined with robust middle-market loan origination activity drives expansion in earning assets. Saratoga successfully deploys its available dry powder into high-yielding first-lien loans, while credit quality remains pristine, leading to NII outperformance and potential special dividends. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |