SAP SE Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value $240.39median of 5 methods · middle span $158-$271based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $210.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $243.3B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SAP's cloud transition remains operationally strong: Q2 current cloud backlog increased 27%, cloud revenue increased 22%, and management retained its FY2026 cloud-revenue outlook. The offset is a less decisive near-term profit setup, including acquisition dilution exceeding €100 million, declining software-license and support revenue, and currency and geopolitical sensitivity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$177.00 Mean target$242.92 High · most bullish analyst$319.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $177.0020% Cloud conversion slows more than expected while declining software-license and support revenue creates a larger transition drag. Integration spending for Dremio, Prior Labs, and Reltio could pressure profitability beyond the revised outlook, while adverse currency movements or geopolitical escalation could weaken reported performance. Base CaseCentral scenario $242.9255% Matches the consensus meanSAP delivers within its FY2026 ranges, with cloud growth offsetting the continuing decline in licenses and support and with acquisition dilution contained near management's updated assumptions. The base case is modal because Q2 execution and backlog remain strong while management explicitly expects some backlog-growth deceleration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $319.0025% Cloud conversion and Business AI adoption remain stronger for longer, allowing SAP to meet or exceed the upper ends of its FY2026 cloud-revenue and operating-profit ranges. The August 2026 company-published consensus supports continued expansion through FY2028, including higher revenue, operating profit, margin, and free cash flow. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |