Sanofi ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value $56.36median of 4 methods · middle span $52-$61based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $40.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $97.5B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sanofi entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 sales rose 17.8% at CER, business EPS rose 33.3% at CER and management upgraded full-year sales-growth guidance to around 10% at CER. Dupixent and newer pharmaceutical launches provide substantial growth, while recent approvals and regulatory submissions broaden the opportunity set. The balance is less compelling because growth remains heavily dependent on Dupixent, vaccines declined in Q2 and management stopped or deprioritized several clinical programs. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$53.72 High · most bullish analyst$63.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.0018% Second-half growth normalizes more sharply than management expects, vaccine weakness persists and Dupixent growth slows before newer launches become sufficiently material. Additional pipeline failures or regulatory setbacks would increase dependence on existing products and undermine confidence in the accelerated transformation. Base CaseCentral scenario $53.7258% Matches the consensus meanSales grow around the upgraded 2026 guidance of 10% at CER and business EPS grows slightly faster, with Dupixent and pharmaceutical launches offsetting softer vaccines and pipeline-prioritization costs. Pipeline approvals continue, but recent program discontinuations keep execution risk elevated. Bull CaseUpside scenario $63.0024% Sanofi exceeds its upgraded 2026 guidance as Dupixent sustains strong growth, acquired and internally developed launches scale, and upcoming regulatory decisions add commercial opportunities. Continued execution toward management's 2030 ambitions for Dupixent and pharmaceutical launches would improve diversification and reinforce profitable growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |