Sandisk Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $3,685.11median of 6 methods · middle span $580-$39,355based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $1,787.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 106% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+106%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $261.8B Enterprise Value $257B Shares Outstanding 155M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sandisk has developed a materially more attractive earnings framework through AI-driven storage demand, capital-efficient NAND technology and signed New Business Model agreements that introduce volume commitments, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing. Management's fiscal 2028-2030 model calls for mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, approximately 80% non-GAAP gross margin, approximately 75% non-GAAP operating margin and approximately 50% adjusted free-cash-flow margin. The evidence supports a favorable operating outlook, but the model remains exposed to NAND pricing, demand volatility, customer execution, technology ramps and the Kioxia manufacturing relationship. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1,000.00 Mean target$2,107.70 High · most bullish analyst$3,600.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1,000.0022% NAND pricing and demand normalize faster than expected, customer deployments slow, or contractual and technology execution falls short. Margin compression, weaker NBM coverage, manufacturing disruption or delayed product ramps would undermine the claim that Sandisk's earnings profile has become structurally less cyclical. Base CaseCentral scenario $2,107.7055% Matches the consensus meanSandisk executes within fiscal Q1 2027 revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance, while signed New Business Model agreements provide better demand and cash-flow visibility. Margin performance remains strong but does not immediately establish that the unusually favorable fiscal 2028-2030 model is sustainable across a full NAND cycle. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3,600.0023% Signed New Business Model agreements become the predominant commercial structure, AI-inference storage demand expands as anticipated, and BiCS9, BiCS10 and HBF products reinforce Sandisk's technology position. Sustained pricing, product mix and manufacturing efficiency allow results to approach the fiscal 2028-2030 targets of approximately 80% non-GAAP gross margin, 75% operating margin and 50% adjusted free-cash-flow margin. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |