San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $3.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $176.2M Enterprise Value $176.5M Shares Outstanding 46.6M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Apr 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) is currently a high-risk, zero-yield vehicle due to the prolonged suspension of its monthly cash distributions since May 2024. The suspension is driven by a combination of depressed natural gas prices in the San Juan Basin and substantial capital expenditures and operating costs charged by the operator, Hilcorp Energy. This has resulted in a massive cumulative excess production cost balance of approximately $9.26 million gross ($6.94 million net to the Trust) as of April 2026 production. Until this deficit is fully cleared, the Trust's cash reserves are replenished to $2.0 million, and outstanding borrowings under its line of credit are repaid, unitholders will receive no distributions. While the underlying gas assets remain substantial and production volumes are relatively stable, SJT functions purely as a pass-through entity with no operational control, making it highly sensitive to commodity price cycles and operator capital allocation. A 'Hold' is recommended for existing investors who can stomach the volatility and wait for a cyclical recovery in natural gas prices, while new capital should avoid the entry until the excess cost balance shows a clear downward trajectory. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Natural gas prices remain depressed below $1.50 per Mcf due to persistent oversupply. Hilcorp continues high capital spending or experiences operational cost overruns, causing the cumulative excess production cost balance to swell past $12.0 million. The Trust exhausts its $2.0 million line of credit, forcing a restructuring or severe liquidity crisis, driving the unit price down toward historical lows. Base CaseCentral scenario Natural gas prices remain range-bound between $1.50 and $2.50 per Mcf through late 2026. Hilcorp continues its $14.0 million capital project plan for 2026, causing the cumulative excess production cost balance to decline slowly or remain elevated. The Trust continues to draw on its line of credit to cover administrative expenses, and distributions remain suspended through the end of 2026, keeping the unit price depressed. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case relies on a rapid recovery in regional natural gas prices (particularly at the California border) combined with a sharp reduction in Hilcorp's capital expenditures. This would allow the Trust to quickly clear its cumulative excess production cost deficit, replenish its $2.0 million cash reserve, pay off the Texas Bank line of credit, and resume high-yield monthly distributions. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |