Samsara Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Samsara Inc

IOTNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)1.21

Intrinsic Value $24.48median of 6 methods · middle span $6-$50based on filings through 1 Aug 2026

Market Price $40.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $23.4B

Enterprise Value $23.2B

Shares Outstanding 592.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Samsara entered the August 2026 reporting window with strong operating momentum: first-quarter FY2027 revenue grew 31%, ARR reached $1.991 billion and grew 30%, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 19%. Enterprise expansion remained robust, including 3,363 customers with at least $100,000 of ARR and accelerating ARR growth among million-dollar customers. New offerings in agentic automation, shipment visibility, camera systems, and fuel management broaden the platform and may sustain cross-sell. The balanced stance reflects execution and competitive risks, a two-point year-over-year decline in first-quarter non-GAAP gross margin.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$30.00

Mean target$44.70

High · most bullish analyst$57.60

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$30.0020%

The downside case is a material deceleration below management's FY2027 growth outlook, failure to sustain expected operating leverage, or weaker cross-sell as newer products move from launch to scaled adoption. Competitive pressure, security incidents, longer sales cycles, hardware and computing costs, currency movements, and macroeconomic weakness could also impair execution.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$44.7057%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Samsara broadly delivers its FY2027 outlook of 24% revenue growth and a 20% non-GAAP operating margin while enterprise customers continue adopting multiple products.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$57.6023%

The upside case requires durable ARR growth near the first-quarter pace, continued expansion among large customers, and successful commercialization of Agent Studio, Tracking Label, advanced camera products, and Fuel Command Center. Emerging products already represented more than 20% of net new ACV for a second consecutive quarter, providing a credible route to a broader platform relationship.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Large-customer expansion is strong: $100,000-plus customer ARR grew 37% year over year, million-dollar customer ARR grew 62%, and 96% of $100,000-plus customers used at least two products.
The product portfolio is expanding beyond core telematics through Agent Studio, shipment tracking, advanced camera capabilities, and an integrated fuel-management experience.

Key Investment Risks

First-quarter non-GAAP gross margin declined to 76% from 79% a year earlier, creating a need to prove that growth and operating leverage can offset product and infrastructure costs.
Management identifies customer retention, sales-cycle length, competition, security incidents, technology change, supply constraints, computing and memory costs, currency, tariffs, and macroeconomic conditions as material uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.