Saia Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryTrucking Beta (adjusted)1.74 Intrinsic Value $368.09median of 6 methods · middle span $333-$422based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $344.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.2B Enterprise Value $9.2B Shares Outstanding 26.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Saia's second-quarter 2026 operating evidence was constructive: revenue increased 17.1%, LTL shipments and tonnage per workday rose 4.4% and 8.4%, respectively, the operating ratio improved to 86.9%, and the cargo-claims ratio reached 0.3%. The evidence nevertheless remains mixed across 2026 because the first-quarter operating ratio was 91.7%, first-quarter tonnage declined 2.1%, and second-quarter LTL revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel surcharge declined 2.2%. The resulting view is balanced rather than directional. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$285.00 Mean target$435.43 High · most bullish analyst$510.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $285.0024% The adverse case is a demand or utilization reversal in which tonnage growth becomes non-positive, pricing pressure persists, and operating performance returns above the 91.7% first-quarter operating ratio while ongoing network investment raises the cost of underutilized capacity. Base CaseCentral scenario $435.4357% Matches the consensus meanThe modal case assumes continued positive network volume but uneven quarterly margins and pricing, consistent with the contrast between the 91.7% first-quarter and 86.9% second-quarter operating ratios and the second-quarter decline in revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel surcharge. Bull CaseUpside scenario $510.0019% The favorable case requires second-quarter demand and execution trends to persist: positive shipment and tonnage growth, further absorption of the expanded network, an operating ratio no worse than the 86.9% second-quarter level, and cargo claims remaining near the reported record-low 0.3%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |