Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc

SBRANASDAQ

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $13.63median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $19.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $4.9B

Enterprise Value $7.3B

Shares Outstanding 259.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA) presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by strong operational recovery in its Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) and skilled nursing assets, supported by powerful demographic tailwinds (the 'Silver Tsunami'). The company has demonstrated robust execution, reiterating its 2026 guidance of approximately 5% growth in normalized FFO and AFFO. With a well-laddered debt maturity profile (no material maturities until 2028), steady leverage at 5.0x, and a highly attractive dividend yield of over 5.8% (representing a sustainable 77% payout of normalized AFFO), Sabra is well-positioned to deliver steady income and capital appreciation. While near-term headwinds from elevated interest rates and labor inflation persist, Sabra's active capital recycling and robust investment pipeline (over $400 million closed or awarded year-to-date at attractive yields around 8.0%) provide clear catalysts for earnings accretion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$19.00

Mean target$22.57

High · most bullish analyst$25.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$18.0015%

Persistent labor shortages and high wage inflation compress margins in the SHOP portfolio, while key tenants face renewed financial distress, lowering rent coverage. Elevated interest rates remain 'higher-for-longer,' increasing refinancing risks and limiting the accretion of new acquisitions. Dilution from forward equity sales outpaces investment returns, leading to flat or declining normalized FFO per share.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$22.5760%

Matches the consensus mean

Sabra successfully delivers on its 2026 guidance of ~5% growth in normalized FFO and AFFO, supported by low single-digit cash NOI growth in the triple-net portfolio and low-to-mid teens growth in the same-store SHOP portfolio. The company match-funds its robust acquisition pipeline using its ATM forward sale agreements, maintaining leverage steady at 5.0x. The stock trades in line with historical averages, supported by its stable dividend yield.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.0025%

Accelerated occupancy recovery in the SHOP portfolio combined with rapid moderation of contract labor costs drives margins significantly higher than consensus estimates. Strong execution of the $400M+ investment pipeline at initial cash yields exceeding 8.2% results in immediate earnings accretion, pushing normalized FFO growth toward the high end of guidance. Macroeconomic relief in the form of interest rate cuts lowers the cost of capital, driving multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong demographic tailwinds from an aging population driving long-term demand for senior housing and skilled nursing facilities.
Robust operational momentum with same-property managed senior housing Cash NOI up 14.4% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Solid balance sheet with steady leverage at 5.0x, ample liquidity of $1.2 billion, and no material debt maturities until 2028.
Attractive and sustainable dividend yield of over 5.8% backed by a conservative 77% payout ratio of normalized AFFO.
Active and accretive investment pipeline with over $400 million in acquisitions closed or awarded year-to-date at an average yield of ~8.0%.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to labor market dynamics, particularly wage inflation and shortages of nursing staff, which compress operator margins.
Macroeconomic headwinds from elevated interest rates, which increase the cost of capital and pressure yield-sensitive REIT valuations.
Potential dilution from the active utilization of the At-The-Market (ATM) equity program and outstanding forward sale agreements.
Operator concentration and credit risks, where financial distress of a major tenant could impact rental income and coverage ratios.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant drop in skilled nursing or senior housing occupancy rates, reversing the post-pandemic recovery trend.
A major tenant default or lease restructuring that materially reduces triple-net rental income.
An unexpected dividend cut or failure to meet the lower bound of the 2026 FFO/AFFO guidance.
A sharp increase in leverage above the targeted 5.0x range without corresponding earnings accretion.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.