Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc

RHPNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Hotel & Motel

Beta (adjusted)1.13

Intrinsic Value $88.16median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $120.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.3B

Enterprise Value $12B

Shares Outstanding 69.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (RHP) represents a highly differentiated lodging REIT that combines a high-barrier-to-entry upscale convention resort portfolio (Gaylord Hotels) with a unique, high-margin country music entertainment business (Opry Entertainment Group). RHP's core strength lies in its massive group-oriented meeting spaces, which benefit from strong corporate group booking momentum and pricing power. The integration of newly acquired premier assets, such as the JW Marriott Phoenix Desert Ridge and JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country, provides robust customer rotation opportunities and organic growth. Despite near-term macroeconomic uncertainties and elevated leverage, RHP's strong forward bookings, record projected ADRs, and strategic expansion of its entertainment segment position it to deliver superior long-term total shareholder returns.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$125.00

Mean target$134.21

High · most bullish analyst$152.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$125.00

A broader macroeconomic downturn or persistent inflation pressures corporate travel budgets, leading to a sharp decline in group bookings and transient demand. Elevated operating expenses (labor, utilities, insurance) compress hotel operating margins. High interest rates increase the cost of debt, and OEG expansion projects face delays or cost overruns, putting pressure on free cash flow and dividend coverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$134.21

Matches the consensus mean

RHP successfully executes its 2026 operational playbook, with same-store Hospitality RevPAR growing within the guided 1.5% to 3.5% range. Group booking pace remains healthy, and the newly integrated JW Marriott Desert Ridge continues to perform in line with underwriting. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAre lands within the guided range of $846 million to $895 million, and pro forma net leverage is maintained within the 4.0x to 4.5x target range. The dividend is sustained or modestly increased, supported by stable cash flows.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$152.00

Corporate group travel and convention demand accelerate significantly, driving same-store RevPAR and out-of-room spending (food & beverage, banquet, AV) well above the high end of guidance. The Opry Entertainment Group (OEG) experiences explosive growth from new venue openings (e.g., Category 10 brand extensions) and festival expansions, leading to meaningful margin expansion. Successful deleveraging brings pro forma net leverage below 4.0x, prompting credit rating upgrades and a lower cost of capital.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Differentiated asset class with five of the top seven largest non-gaming convention center hotels in the United States, creating a powerful competitive moat.
Strong forward visibility with record projected group rooms revenue on the books for future years.
Unique exposure to the experiential leisure and entertainment space through OEG, driving high-margin, out-of-room revenue.
Proven management team with a disciplined capital allocation track record and successful integration of large-scale resort acquisitions.

Key Investment Risks

High sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles and corporate spending trends that dictate group and convention demand.
Elevated financial leverage with pro forma net leverage at the upper end of management's target range.
Substantial ongoing capital expenditure requirements for property renovations and entertainment venue expansions.
Heavy operational reliance on Marriott International as the third-party manager of the hotel portfolio.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained double-digit decline in gross advanced group bookings over consecutive quarters.
Pro forma net leverage exceeding 4.5x without a clear path to deleveraging.
A significant reduction or suspension of the quarterly dividend.
Severe operational disruptions or contract disputes with Marriott International.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.