Ryder System Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ryder System Inc

RNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryRental & Leasing Services

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value $239.69median of 6 methods · middle span $119-$698based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $230.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.9B

Enterprise Value $16.4B

Shares Outstanding 38.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ryder entered the second half of 2026 with improving used-vehicle conditions, normalized rental utilization, strong contractual sales activity, and seven consecutive quarters of comparable EPS growth. Management raised FY2026 comparable EPS guidance to $14.40-$14.80 while retaining 3% operating-revenue growth, 18% adjusted ROE, and $700-$800 million of free-cash-flow guidance. These positives are tempered by declining Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions earnings, a smaller rental and contractual fleet, and debt-to-equity of 259%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$283.00

Mean target$299.56

High · most bullish analyst$320.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$283.0020%

Freight recovery stalls, rental utilization falls below normalized levels, used-vehicle pricing reverses, and automotive weakness or new-business inefficiencies deepen the earnings declines in Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions. High capital requirements and leverage then restrict shareholder returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$299.5655%

Matches the consensus mean

Ryder delivers approximately its existing 3% operating-revenue outlook and remains within the $14.40-$14.80 comparable-EPS range. Fleet Management Solutions benefits from strategic initiatives and used-vehicle conditions, while weaker automotive activity and lower Dedicated Transportation Solutions fleet count constrain consolidated upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$320.0025%

A stronger freight-cycle recovery lifts rental demand and utilization, used-truck and tractor prices remain positive, contractual wins convert efficiently, and Ryder delivers near the top of its FY2026 EPS range while preserving strong cash generation. Continued execution of strategic initiatives and capital returns support a higher valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Ryder reported its seventh consecutive quarter of comparable EPS growth and raised FY2026 comparable EPS guidance to $14.40-$14.80.
Commercial-rental power-fleet utilization reached 75% despite a 15% smaller average fleet, while used-truck and tractor pricing increased 6% and 3% year over year.
Management maintained FY2026 free-cash-flow guidance of $700-$800 million and an 18% adjusted-ROE forecast.
The quarterly dividend was increased 11% to $1.01 per share, marking Ryder's 200th consecutive quarterly cash dividend.

Key Investment Risks

Supply Chain Solutions earnings before tax declined 7% in the second quarter, reflecting weaker automotive results and new-business ramp-up productivity.
Dedicated Transportation Solutions operating revenue declined 3% and earnings before tax declined 4%, with lower fleet count and adverse prior-year insurance-claim development.
Debt-to-equity was 259% at June 30, 2026, and FY2026 capital expenditures were forecast at $2.4 billion, leaving the thesis sensitive to disciplined capital deployment.
The outlook remains exposed to freight demand, rental utilization, used-vehicle pricing, maintenance costs, labor availability, residual-value assumptions, and interest rates.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.