Ryanair Holdings Plc ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ryanair Holdings Plc ADR

RYAEuronext Dublin

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAirlines

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value $55.98median of 6 methods · middle span $26-$67based on filings through 31 Mar 2025

Market Price $54.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $28.1B

Shares Outstanding 518.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ryanair retains strong passenger momentum, a debt-free balance sheet, substantial fuel hedging and a structurally low-cost fleet, but Q1 FY27 exposed material near-term earnings sensitivity: profit after tax fell 34% as average fares declined 6% and unhedged fuel prices increased. Management still expects 216 million FY27 passengers, yet close-in booking patterns, modestly lower Q2 pricing and the absence of FY27 profit guidance limit visibility.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$62.90

Mean target$72.52

High · most bullish analyst$78.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$62.9023%

Average-fare weakness persists beyond Q1, unhedged fuel remains expensive, and geopolitical disruption, macroeconomic weakness or European air-traffic-control disruption reduces demand or operating reliability. Passenger growth then falls short of 216 million and earnings remain materially below the prior-year level.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$72.5255%

Matches the consensus mean

Ryanair broadly delivers its 216 million-passenger FY27 outlook, with H1 growth stronger than H2, while near-term pricing remains soft and fuel, environmental-tax, labor and maintenance costs constrain profit conversion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$78.0022%

Traffic reaches or exceeds 216 million passengers, close-in summer bookings strengthen, fare stimulation moderates, and the 80% FY27 fuel hedge limits exposure to volatile oil prices. Constrained European short-haul capacity and Ryanair's fleet and cost advantages then support a stronger earnings recovery than implied by Q1 FY27.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q1 FY27 traffic increased 6% to 61.3 million passengers, and July traffic reached 22.2 million at a 96% load factor.
The final €1.2 billion bond was repaid in May 2026, leaving the group debt free; at June 30, gross cash exceeded €2.8 billion and the company reported an unencumbered fleet of 620 Boeing 737 aircraft.
FY27 jet fuel was 80% hedged at approximately $67 per barrel, while the fleet plan includes 300 MAX-10 aircraft through March 2034 to support capacity growth and fuel efficiency.

Key Investment Risks

Q1 FY27 profit after tax declined 34% to €538 million as average fares fell 6% and the price of the 20% unhedged jet-fuel exposure increased sharply.
Management reported that Q2 pricing was trending modestly lower year over year, the booking window remained closer-in, and it had no H2 pricing visibility.
FY27 earnings remain sensitive to unhedged fuel prices, conflict escalation, macroeconomic shocks, European environmental taxes, higher labor and maintenance costs, and air-traffic-control disruption.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.