Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Specialty Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $27.86median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $38.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.8B Enterprise Value $13.3B Shares Outstanding 256.3M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ryan Specialty continues to produce organic growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth despite a difficult specialty-insurance environment. Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 7.2%, organic revenue grew 6.7%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 12.1%. Underwriting Management remained the strongest specialty, while property activity declined moderately and adjusted EBITDAC margin contracted year over year. Management maintained mid-single-digit organic-growth guidance and expects full-year adjusted EBITDAC margin to decline 50-100 basis points from 2025. These mixed signals support a Hold pending evidence that organic growth can stabilize and restructuring and technology investment can preserve margins. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$50.72 High · most bullish analyst$76.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $34.0019% Organic growth falls below the second-quarter 2026 rate as market headwinds intensify, property weakness persists, and compensation or restructuring costs push full-year adjusted EBITDAC margin below guidance. The combination of slower growth and weaker operating leverage would undermine the thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $50.7258% Matches the consensus meanFull-year organic growth remains in the guided mid-single digits, with casualty and Underwriting Management growth offsetting continued property pressure. Adjusted EBITDAC margin declines within management's 50-100-basis-point range while restructuring and technology investment support longer-term productivity. Bull CaseUpside scenario $76.0023% Organic growth stabilizes above the second-quarter 2026 rate, Underwriting Management sustains double-digit growth, property weakness moderates, and operating efficiencies keep the full-year margin decline within or better than management's 50-100-basis-point guidance range. Continued adjusted EPS growth and disciplined capital returns would strengthen the case. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |