Rush Street Interactive Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Rush Street Interactive Inc

RSINYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryGambling

Beta (adjusted)1.34

Intrinsic Value $14.36median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$27based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $19.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.9B

Enterprise Value $4.5B

Shares Outstanding 244.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Rush Street Interactive (RSI) is at a compelling operational inflection point, demonstrating its ability to scale top-line revenue rapidly while expanding profitability. Driven by a highly successful 'casino-first' strategy and robust user acquisition in Latin America, RSI's Q1 2026 results showcased a record 41% year-over-year revenue growth to $370.4 million. Crucially, this growth is translating into significant bottom-line gains, with Adjusted EBITDA rising 81% to $60.2 million and marketing expenses dropping to 12.5% of revenue. With a strong balance sheet featuring $331 million in unrestricted cash and zero debt, RSI is well-positioned to capture high-margin growth from upcoming market launches, such as the regulated Alberta iGaming market in July 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$30.00

Mean target$36.00

High · most bullish analyst$40.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$30.00

The bear case reflects potential headwinds from increased competitive intensity in North American iGaming, which could force RSI to increase promotional and marketing spend, eroding margins. Additionally, adverse regulatory changes or tax increases in key international markets (such as Colombia or Mexico) could negatively impact profitability and slow down international expansion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$36.00

Matches the consensus mean

The base case is built on the company's raised full-year 2026 guidance, expecting revenue of $1.490 billion to $1.540 billion (31% to 36% growth) and Adjusted EBITDA of $230 million to $250 million. Growth is supported by steady expansion in existing markets, the launch of the Alberta market on July 13, 2026, and continued marketing efficiency with sales and marketing expenses stabilizing around 12% to 13% of revenue.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$40.00

The bull case assumes rapid market share gains in newly launched jurisdictions, particularly Alberta, alongside faster-than-expected legalization of iGaming in major US states (e.g., Virginia, Maryland). In this scenario, RSI's superior player economics and disciplined marketing spend drive operating leverage, pushing long-term EBITDA margins toward the mid-20% range faster than consensus estimates.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational leverage with Q1 2026 revenue growing 41% YoY while sales and marketing expenses fell to 12.5% of revenue.
Robust balance sheet with $331 million in unrestricted cash and zero outstanding debt, providing high financial flexibility.
Highly attractive upcoming market catalyst with the Alberta iGaming market launching on July 13, 2026, under a favorable 20% tax structure.
Proven execution in newly transitioned markets, as demonstrated by the dramatic turnaround in Delaware where GGR run rate exceeded $213 million.

Key Investment Risks

Intense competition in the North American online gaming and sports betting market from larger, well-capitalized operators like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Regulatory and tax risks in international jurisdictions, such as the temporary emergency 16% tax decree in Colombia.
Dependence on state-level legislative progress for new iGaming market openings in the United States.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant increase in customer acquisition costs (CAC) that reverses the positive trend in marketing efficiency.
Delays or unfavorable regulatory changes in the rollout of the Alberta iGaming market.
Failure to secure market access or competitive positioning in newly legalizing US iGaming states.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.