Rubrik Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Rubrik Inc

RBRKNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)1.16

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $115.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $23.8B

Enterprise Value $23.7B

Shares Outstanding 208.1M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Rubrik is establishing itself as a premier platform for agentic cyber resilience, successfully converging data protection, identity security, and enterprise AI operations. The company's transition to a high-margin subscription model is virtually complete, with cloud ARR representing 89% of its total subscription base. Rubrik's strong land-and-expand dynamics (evidenced by a net retention rate consistently above 120%) and rapid enterprise adoption (2,946 customers with >$100k ARR) are driving robust top-line growth. Furthermore, the business is demonstrating significant operating leverage, with non-GAAP subscription ARR contribution margins expanding rapidly and free cash flow generation accelerating. Despite near-term GAAP unprofitability due to stock-based compensation, Rubrik's high competitive win rates (>90%) and strategic positioning in a critical cybersecurity niche justify a premium valuation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets27 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$85.00

Mean target$96.07

High · most bullish analyst$115.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Intensified competition from a newly consolidated Cohesity-Veritas entity and established players like Commvault leads to pricing pressure and market share erosion. Sales execution slows down during the global go-to-market transition under the new CRO, causing net new ARR additions to miss targets. Subscription ARR growth decelerates below 20%, and heavy R&D and S&M investments delay the path to GAAP operating breakeven, compressing valuation multiples.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Rubrik executes in line with its raised FY27 guidance, achieving subscription ARR between $1.854 billion and $1.862 billion (representing 27-28% growth) and total revenue of $1.638 billion to $1.648 billion. The company maintains its strong competitive win rate of over 90% against legacy players and Cohesity, while keeping its net retention rate stable above 120%. Non-GAAP EPS turns positive at $0.25 to $0.35, and free cash flow margins stabilize around 19-20%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Rubrik accelerates enterprise AI agent adoption via its newly launched Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) and captures a dominant share of the identity recovery market (expanding across Okta, Active Directory, and Entra ID). Multi-product attachment rates surge, pushing the net retention rate back toward historical highs of 130%. Operating leverage scales faster than expected, leading to GAAP profitability ahead of schedule, while subscription ARR growth remains sustained above 30% through FY27.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

High-velocity subscription growth with Subscription ARR reaching $1.57 billion (up 32% YoY) as of Q1 FY27.
Strong customer expansion dynamics with a subscription net retention rate consistently exceeding 120%.
Rapidly improving unit economics and cash flow generation, highlighted by a 19% free cash flow margin in Q1 FY27.
Strong competitive win rates and legacy displacements, particularly in large enterprises, driven by its unique architecture and pre-emptive recovery engine.

Key Investment Risks

Intense competitive landscape from well-capitalized rivals, including Commvault and the merged Cohesity-Veritas entity.
High stock-based compensation expenses continuing to impact GAAP profitability and causing shareholder dilution.
Execution risks associated with scaling new product lines (such as Rubrik Agent Cloud and identity solutions) and international expansion.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Subscription ARR growth rate decelerating below 20% YoY.
Subscription net retention rate dropping below the critical 115% threshold.
Significant decline in competitive win rates below 80%, indicating loss of product leadership.
Material deterioration of free cash flow margins back into negative territory.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.