RTX Corp Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.54 Intrinsic Value $165.06median of 6 methods · middle span $99-$224based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $185.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $249.3B Enterprise Value $282.1B Shares Outstanding 1.4B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary RTX entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter organic sales increased 16%, adjusted EPS increased 21%, every operating segment expanded adjusted margin, backlog reached $289 billion, and management raised its full-year sales, EPS and free-cash-flow outlook. Additional support comes from more than 800 GTF orders and commitments during 2026 through July and a seven-year, $22.9 billion Tomahawk award announced in August. The balanced rating reflects substantial execution requirements: RTX must convert its backlog while expanding capacity, manage Pratt & Whitney fleet and supply-chain issues, control long-duration defense-program costs and sustain commercial-aerospace demand. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$183.98 Mean target$232.27 High · most bullish analyst$265.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $183.9820% Supply-chain constraints, unfavorable contract execution, customer-production disruptions or additional Pratt & Whitney fleet costs slow backlog conversion and force management to reduce its raised sales, EPS or free-cash-flow outlook. Lower productivity or weaker commercial demand would compound the pressure despite the large backlog. Base CaseCentral scenario $232.2755% Matches the consensus meanRTX delivers near its raised 2026 outlook, with backlog conversion and commercial aftermarket demand offsetting normal capacity-ramp friction, program-mix variability and continuing Pratt & Whitney execution costs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $265.0025% Capacity additions and digital productivity enable faster backlog conversion without sacrificing margins; commercial aftermarket growth remains strong; GTF Advantage execution and the more-than-8,000-engine order backlog reinforce Pratt & Whitney's installed-base economics; and the Tomahawk and other multiyear munitions programs support durable defense growth. This outcome assumes results remain above the raised 2026 outlook and major program or supply-chain charges are contained. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |