Royal Gold Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value $278.97median of 6 methods · middle span $178-$342based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $232.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $19.7B Enterprise Value $19.9B Shares Outstanding 88.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Royal Gold offers diversified precious-metals exposure through a high-margin stream-and-royalty model, with 2026 operating performance tracking within most guidance ranges and a five-year growth pipeline spanning expansions and new assets. The Sandstorm and Horizon acquisitions broadened the portfolio, while the Hod Maden restructuring reduced direct operating and capital exposure. However, the delayed August 28 issuer quote of $262.85 already reflects substantial optimism. The resulting balance of modest base-case appreciation against commodity-price, operator, integration and development-schedule risks supports a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$218.00 Mean target$302.67 High · most bullish analyst$350.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $218.0024% The bear case assumes weaker metal prices, gold sales below the lower end of guidance, or material operator and project delays. Slippage at Hod Maden or other growth assets, coupled with weaker acquired-portfolio performance, would defer anticipated growth and compress the valuation accorded to Royal Gold's future production exposure. Base CaseCentral scenario $302.6758% Matches the consensus meanIt assumes full-year sales remain within management's ranges, acquired assets contribute as expected, and the principal development pipeline progresses without major acceleration or delay. Bull CaseUpside scenario $350.0018% The bull case assumes 2026 sales reach the upper portions of guidance, elevated precious-metal prices persist, acquired assets integrate successfully, and development projects including Hod Maden, Platreef and Khoemacau advance on schedule. Strong portfolio cash generation and successful deployment of capital would support a higher market valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |