Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Beta (adjusted)1.51 Intrinsic Value $321.60median of 6 methods · middle span $218-$349based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $269.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $72.2B Enterprise Value $92.6B Shares Outstanding 269M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Royal Caribbean's operating outlook remains constructive: second-quarter demand and close-in pricing exceeded expectations, 2027 bookings were pacing ahead of historical levels, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $17.73-$17.87. The company nevertheless reported only 1.2% constant-currency net-yield growth in the second quarter, acknowledged geopolitical booking pressure on selected itineraries, and plans approximately $4.7 billion of 2026 capital expenditures. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$262.00 Mean target$346.92 High · most bullish analyst$415.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $262.0018% Geopolitical disruptions broaden beyond selected itineraries, close-in demand softens, constant-currency net yields fall below guidance, or ship and destination investment creates cost pressure. Those outcomes would put the updated 2026 earnings range and longer-term Perfecta objectives at risk. Base CaseCentral scenario $346.9258% Matches the consensus meanRoyal Caribbean delivers within its 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance of $17.73-$17.87 as approximately 9% revenue growth and 6.6% capacity growth offset modest geopolitical booking pressure and broadly flat constant-currency net cruise costs excluding fuel. Bull CaseUpside scenario $415.0024% Demand remains strong, 2027 booking momentum persists, constant-currency net yields finish at or above the high end of the 2026 range, and new ships and destinations support progress toward the Perfecta targets of a 20% adjusted-EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2027 and at least 17% ROIC by the end of 2027. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |